The 2026 House map continues to move further onto GOP terrain. But while Democrats are dreaming big, the GOP insists they can hold the majority.
Score talked to the DCCC’s Deputy Executive Director Will Van Nuys and the NRCC’s Communications Director Will Kiley.
The two operatives chose four under-the-radar races where they’re feeling good about their underdog candidates pulling off an upset. If these races flip, they know they’re having a good night.
“We’re not saying that this won’t be a tough fight to the end, but we know we feel very good about where we stand,” Kiley said.
“Our job is to make sure that we raise as much as we can to expand this battlefield as far as we can,” Van Nuys said.
DEMOCRATS’ FOUR ‘SLEEPER’ SEATS
CO-05 (Trump +9.1)
Rep. Jeff Crank won this seat by 14 points in 2024 in his third bid for Congress. But Colorado Springs is “trending Democrats’ way” with fast growth of younger and Hispanic populations. That shift, along with Trump’s unpopularity, has Democrats hoping for a flip, Van Nuys says.
IA-02 (Trump +10)
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson’s run for Senate has left this northeastern Iowa seat open for the taking, Van Nuys argues. Frustrations with beef imports, rising gas prices and the popularity of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand have Democrats hoping state Rep. Lindsay James can turn this seat blue.
KY-06 (Trump +15)
Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is making it his personal mission to elect his former adviser and federal prosecutor Zach Dembo and flip Senate nominee Rep. Andy Barr’s Lexington-based seat. Dembo released an internal poll in late September showing him with a 5-point lead.
WI-01 (Trump +4.5)
Van Nuys says emergency room nurse Mitchell Berman is a “perfect contrast” in the blue-collar district to Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, an attorney and former plastics manufacturing executive.
FOUR DISTRICTS WHERE THE GOP THINKS IT CAN SURPRISE
NM-02 (Trump +1.8)
Former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell ran four cycles in a row. Now the GOP is betting on a fresh face: Greg Cunningham, a tattooed, motorcycle-driving Marine vet and ex-cop who’s running ads highlighting his Hispanic heritage in the Latino-heavy district.
Republicans are spending big on the race.
Kiley called Cunningham a “badass.” “Greg is a candidate who can continue to capture those voters and keep them coming our way,” he said.
NY-03 (Trump +4.3)
Republican former state Assemblymember Mike LiPetri came within 4 points of defeating Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) in 2024, and Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman coasted to reelection last fall. Now Blakeman is running for governor, and Kiley says the statewide campaign can push LiPetri over the top in a rematch.
The MAGA Inc.-affiliated No Going Back PAC has dropped a whopping $6 million into the district, with $2 million more from NRCC, though the CLF trimmed its own ad buy there Tuesday.
“Last cycle, LiPetri came incredibly close with minimal to no outside investment,” Kiley said. “Now he has the investment and institutional support to get the job done.”
AZ-01 (Trump +3.1)
The DCCC’s preferred candidate lost to former Democratic state Rep. Amish Shah in the primary in this Phoenix and Scottsdale-area seat, and Kiley says that’s opened the door for the GOP to hold the seat.
“The DCCC is lying if they said that Amish is the candidate they wanted,” Kiley said.
Republicans nominated former Arizona Cardinals kicker and NFL commentator Jay Feely, and Kiley says Feely’s unique resume will boost him over the edge. Both parties are spending huge sums, with more than $31 million combined earmarked for the race.
NV-03 (Trump +0.7)
Republican Marty O’Donnell was the composer for the music in the popular video game Halo. He’s using that success to pour $3 million into his bid to flip this Las Vegas-area seat held by Democratic Rep. Susie Lee.
The personal investments, along with outside GOP spending, eliminate a cash advantage past Democrats enjoyed in the district, Kiley said.
“The resources are coming in to flip this seat because the GOP ecosystem can see how big of an opportunity it is,” he said.
A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
