Islamabad, Pakistan – Legislators in Pakistan-administered Kashmir are voting on Thursday to elect a president, filling the region’s last vacant constitutional office nearly eight months after the post fell vacant, well beyond the deadline set by its constitution.
Najeeb Naqi Khan, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) candidate, is expected to win.
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The party and its allies hold 32 of the 46 occupied seats in the 53-member Legislative Assembly, five more than the 27 votes required. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) holds 14.
But questions surrounding months of deadly unrest persist, as seven seats remain vacant because two districts at the centre of the protest movement have yet to vote.
What is happening on Thursday?
Members of the region’s legislative assembly vote at the assembly secretariat in Muzaffarabad between 10am and 1pm local time.
Under the interim constitution, the president is elected by a majority of the assembly’s total membership, meaning 27 votes, regardless of how many seats are occupied.
Who are the candidates?
The PMLN-backed Khan, 62, is a former member of the assembly from Palandri in Sudhnoti district, where he has won multiple elections. He has held several ministerial portfolios.
The PPP has nominated Chaudhry Latif Akbar, 78, a former assembly speaker who served as acting president from January until August.
Under the constitution, the president cannot be a member of the assembly.
Why has the office been vacant since January?
President Sultan Mehmood Chaudhry died in Islamabad on January 31, aged 71. He had been elected in 2021 on a Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) ticket. The PTI is led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who has been jailed for more than three years, but remains the country’s most popular politician.
The region’s constitution requires the speaker to have an election held within 30 days of the office falling vacant.
The speaker at the time was the PPP’s Akbar, who was also performing the president’s functions. No election was held.
In late February, a petition was filed at the region’s High Court for directions to hold the vote, naming the speaker, the chief election commissioner and the Election Commission among the respondents. The election still did not take place.
“Legally, according to the constitution, they should have held the presidential election. But because the federal government at the time was PMLN’s, they had it delayed,” alleged Ershad Mahmud, author of the book, Poonch: Identity, Politics and Resistance.
“Their calculation was that their own government would eventually form in AJK, so they’d be able to install their own president, and that’s precisely what happened. Otherwise, constitutionally, there’s no real justification for that delay,” the analyst who specialises in Kashmir affairs added.
Why are seven seats still empty?
The region’s legislative election was held in three phases on July 27, August 2 and August 10.
Polling in seven of the 11 constituencies in Poonch division was postponed before the final phase, including five in Poonch district and two in Sudhnoti.
Six weeks later, no new date has been set.
“So far, no dates have been given for polls in the constituencies where election was not possible due to security situation,” Chief Election Commissioner Justice (retd) Ghulam Mustafa Mughal told Al Jazeera. “We need safety and security to be priority.”
The PMLN won 25 of the 38 directly contested seats, while the PPP won 12. The PMLN also won six of eight reserved seats. Turnout was 48 percent, down from 61 percent in 2021.
What are the protests about?
The Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee, a popular grassroots umbrella organisation, was banned on June 5 under antiterrorism legislation.
Its central demand is the abolition of 12 seats reserved for Kashmiri refugees living elsewhere in Pakistan, which it says allow outsiders to shape the territory’s politics.
Internet services were cut across the region the same day. Broadband was restored on September 13 after 99 days, although mobile data remained restricted in parts of the region.
Residents and rights groups put the death toll from the unrest at more than 50. The government has not issued an overall figure but says at least seven police and paramilitary personnel have been killed.
Does the vote hold with an incomplete assembly?
Mughal, the chief election commissioner, says it does.
“The absence of those legislators actually does not matter,” he said. “While morally one may say it is not adequate, but legally and constitutionally, it is no bar and elections will go ahead tomorrow.”
Mahmud sees it differently.
“The people of Poonch division, particularly in Rawalakot and Sudhanoti, are being subjected to collective punishment for demanding their rights and refusing to surrender to power,” he said. “Excluding them from the electoral process and denying them any meaningful role in forming the government sends a chilling message: Anyone demanding structural reform, accountable government and better public services will be punished.”
