Some in Labour’s ranks believe Burnham is planning for an early election, with party HQ recently launching “operation second term”, to beef up its campaigning and organising strength.
Burnham does not have to call an election until August 2029 – but going to the country early – perhaps as early as next spring – could deliver him a mandate of his own and free him from the constraints of Sir Keir Starmer’s 2024 manifesto.
Recent polling has suggested that a “Burnham bounce” is real, though not dramatic.
The party has moved from just under 20% in the polls at the end of the Starmer era to around the mid-twenties now.
Ipsos puts its standing as high as 28%, external, while YouGov registers a more modest 23%, external.
Labour strategists will be pleased that Reform UK’s share – 21% in YouGov – is the lowest since January 2025, and that Nigel Farage’s party is now neck-and-neck with Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives.
One Labour insider told me that Burnham is happy to see a resilient Badenoch, as this blunts Reform support and could point to a split vote on the right at an election.
And new research from YouGov, external suggests that at the all important constituency level, 63-68% of Lib Dem and Green voters would tactically vote for Labour to stop Reform UK winning their seat.
Burnham of course also faces a challenge on the left.
How much of a threat Zack Polanski’s Greens can be in some traditional Labour seats will be tested in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election just a week after the Labour conference concludes.
Downing Street insists that an early election is not being planned.
To say anything else, though, would be to repeat the uncertainty of Gordon Brown’s early months in No 10 when election speculation wasn’t doused – and had become so rife that he was reputationally damaged when he decided not to go to the polls.
But some who have been in regular touch with No 10 tell me they have seen no serious signs that an early election is in the offing.
Burnham appears determined to give his government enough time in office to present tangible achievements to a sceptical electorate.
And with Labour still well below the 34% vote share it captured in 2024, many Labour MPs will be pushing the PM not to cut and run.
So don’t expect the centre point of Burnham’s conference speech to be a message to his MPs to go back to their constituencies and prepare for a loss of some of their seats.
But equally don’t expect election speculation to subside at this conference.
