House Democrats are pushing into redder and redder territory. History shows those last-minute moves don’t usually pan out, even in favorable cycles.
Since 2018, Democrats haven’t flipped any Republican-held seat that was added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” list in the September or October before Election Day, according to a POLITICO analysis. Of the 28 total candidates from 2018 to 2024 that were added in the final two months of the campaign, just three Democrats won — all in Democratic-held open seats.
That’s a much lower rate than average Red to Blue performance. Out of 203 candidates added to the program in the four previous cycles, 73 flipped their seats.
That’s not a shock: The DCCC tends to add the biggest reaches later as it moves through the cycle, both to make sure its best opportunities are funded first and have enough attention and to try to create a sense of momentum and map expansion for donors and the media.
In fact, the DCCC used some of the seats in their latest round of additions in a recent fundraising plea sent out by Executive Director Julie Merz, who warned that without more cash the committee “could be leaving winnable races on the table.”
But it illuminates how hard it is — even in the best of environments — to reach deep into red territory in order to flip House seats. And it’s especially true now, as the House battlefield has shrunk significantly since 2018 because of gerrymandering.
Since the beginning of September, the DCCC has added nine Democrats to Red to Blue: independent Bill Hill in AK-AL; Will Lawrence in MI-07; Mitchell Berman in WI-01; Chris Jones in AR-02; Dwayne Romero in CO-03; Eliott Rodriguez in FL-27; Teresa Benitez-Thompson in NV-02; Blake Gendebien in NY-21; and Justin Pearson in TN-09.
Democrats acknowledge these late additions are a low-percentage play. Former DCCC staffer Cole Leiter, who worked there for the 2018 and 2020 cycles, said the committee recruits and tracks reach-district candidates early in the cycle with hopes the political winds will shift their way.
“That is an investment in the unpredictability of the map,” Leiter said. “Most of these seats probably won’t flip, but one or two might.”
Regardless of whether or not Democrats ultimately win the seats they’ve added late this year (the DCCC added six deep-red targets to Red to Blue in early October) — the additions alone contribute to a narrative of a party on offense. And they can also be a boon for fundraising for those specific candidates as well as to entice donors with exactly which areas their dollars will go if they pony up.
“Even if there’s ultimately not a massive success rate in those final editions, it is not a bad thing to make sure that those campaigns have any last-minute dollars that the designation can bring,” said Meredith Kelly, a former DCCC staffer who worked the 2016 and 2018 cycles. “Just make sure that they have a surfboard in the water and have an ability to potentially take advantage of a really, really good night.”
This cycle’s late-add Democrats are almost all facing cash disadvantages against their incumbent GOP opponents. Of the nine Democrats added within the past two months, only one — Benitez-Thompson, running against Republican David Flippo — has reported more cash on hand than their opponent. Five of them are facing fundraising deficits of over $1 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
Democrats’ poor record in these seats is somewhat self-selecting — seats added to the program late in the cycle reflect the fact that Democrats weren’t initially convinced they could be flipped.
Whitney Fox, who lost by 9 points to GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in FL-13 in 2024 and was among the last Democrats to be added to Red to Blue when she was picked in late September, said her campaign suffered from the delay in adding her to the program, even as she acknowledged the DCCC is forced to make strategic decisions with limited resources.
The late additions also limit the window that candidates can capitalize on the program’s benefits. After initially being told she wouldn’t be added and after what she said was months of making her case to the DCCC, Fox made the list just before Hurricane Milton devastated the Tampa area, which she said made it difficult to fundraise off her newly minted Red to Blue status.
“I felt like it was too little, too late,” she said.
The Democrat running against Luna this cycle, Leela Gray, was added to Red to Blue in late August. Fox, who is informally advising local Florida candidates this cycle, said she offered Gray advice on how to make the list early.
“I was a squeaky wheel trying to talk to leadership and Democratic members of Congress, and then it got to a certain point where I was no longer the squeaky wheel,” she said she relayed to Gray. “I was going to take the spoke off the wheel and hit people over the head with it.”
Still the DCCC believes this cycle will be different, history be damned. And if recent national polling showing them with a double-digit lead in the generic ballot is correct, some of these late additions might break through.
“Records are meant to be broken,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement. “We’re on track to break them this year because across the battlefield, we’ve got amazing recruits and the enthusiasm to fire House Republicans for making life unaffordable is off the charts.”
A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
