SVT projection: centre-left opposition bloc leads by one seat
Drama.
The SVT’s much-awaited projection at 9.45pm local time, using the actual results from 10% of districts in their model, shows the two blocs effectively tied, with the opposition leading by just ONE SEAT in the new parliament.
Here are the revised figures:
Social Democratic Party (S) 27.6%
Moderates (M) 20.0%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.5%
Left Party (V) 8.2%
Centre Party (C) 7.1%
Christian Democrats (KD) 6.3%
Green Party (MP) 6.2%
Liberals (L) 5.5%
If confirmed, it would give a truly extraordinary result: the opposition bloc at 175 seats in the new parliament, and the incumbent government at 174.
It’s going to be a long night.
Key events
Liberal leader hails ‘historic’ comeback as party polls above parliamentary threshold
The Liberal party’s leader Simona Mohamsson is unsurprisingly delighted with the projected numbers given her party polled below the threshold not long ago (20:20).
She calls the result “a historic comeback,” and says it shows the party’s hard work during the campaign paid off.
She tells the party faithful to enjoy the moment, and says the outcome of the election is not decided yet.
Jakub Krupa
Interestingly, neither PM Ulf Kristersson nor his main challenger Magdalena Andersson has taken to the stage so far tonight.
They are no doubt reading the blog waiting for the final results.
Centre Party’s leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist is the next party leader to speak tonight and she celebrates “what a campaign we have had.”
She says the party succeeded in making the campaign all about its policies, and “optimism and faith in the future.”
If the current figures hold, her party will marginally improve its 2022 result with 7.1%, up from 6.7%.
Here are the latest results in our brand new self-updating chart as more results come in.
Reading from left to right, the first four parties are in the right-leaning governing bloc; the other four are in the left-leaning opposition bloc.
Election authority projects opposition win by a single seat
The Swedish election authority has now put out its own projection, which provisionally confirms a one-seat difference between the blocs.
They have the left-leaning opposition with 175 seats in the new parliament to the incumbents’ 174.
Could not be closer.
Opposition bloc leads by one seat with 71% votes counted
With 71% votes counted, the result remains the same: the left-leaning opposition bloc leads by… a single seat in the next parliament, 175 to 174.
Green Party leaders Amanda Lind and Daniel Helldén are the first party leaders to take to the stage tonight.
They welcome the result, and say they will fight “for the climate and the equality” in the next parliament.
Playing on my fears (22:56), Lind also suggests we may not have the final result until Wednesday. Argh.
Some late ballots, primarily from overseas voters, are only expected to be counted on Wednesday.
And the number of late ballots could be higher than the current margin between the two parties.
Just saying.
Amazingly, if the projection came true, it would not be the first time Sweden has seen a nail-biter of this scale.
In the 1973 general election, the two main political blocs literally tied at 175 seats each. That stalemate prompted parliament to change the number of available seats to an odd 349 ahead of the next election.
That proved to be a smart move, coming in handy just six years later, in 1979, when the centre-right bloc won by, erm, a single seat: 175 to 174.
They do love a bit of drama, Swedes, don’t they?
Swedish public broadcaster SVT says their projection appears to show the difference between the two blocs is currently around 20,000 votes.
Incredible.
With 57% of votes now counted, the opposition bloc leads by 0.3pp, 46.2% to 45.9% – and still 175 to 174 when it comes to seats.
The latest figures are as follows:
Social Democratic Party (S) 27.6%
Moderates (M) 19.8%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.7%
Left Party (V) 8.2%
Centre Party (C) 7.2%
Green Party (MP) 6.3%
Christian Democrats (KD) 6.2.%
Liberals (L) 5.4%
0.1pp difference between two bloc, SVT projection shows
The SVT projection shows 49.3% of the vote share going to the opposition bloc, with 49.2% for the governing bloc.
A difference of 0.1pp.
We are literally talking about the slimmest of margins here.
Nicholas Aylott of the Södertörn University writes in to comment on the new projected result for Kristersson’s Moderates.
“For the second consecutive election, the party of the PM looks set to have increased its vote, while allies lost out. Not what we usually expect.”
The Moderates saw 19.1% of the vote share in 2022; the latest SVT projection has them at 20.0%.
