League titles and big trophies are largely won by tangible elements. Talent, organisation, depth, tactics, player management. Without those aspects in full working order you cannot demonstrate the consistency needed to win a title. But titles are often decided by such small margins that intangibles undoubtedly come into play as well.
‘Bottle’, while overused to the point of parody in the modern social media landscape, is definitely a defining element. We consistently see examples of teams who have not ‘got over the line’ before hiccuping their way to the ultimate prize. A young Arsenal team did exactly that in 1988-89, tossing away presentable points at home to Derby County and Wimbledon in May before sealing the deal in the most testing circumstances by winning by two goals at Anfield on the final day, nay, the final seconds of the season.
The contemporaneous argument from players in that team was that the final day assignment was so ludicrously unlikely for them that it actually removed the pressure they had felt in home games against Derby and Wimbledon. And the dagger second goal from Michael Thomas came so late in the game that there was simply no time for a response from Liverpool or a mental and emotional collapse from Arsenal.
When Manchester City won the first league title under their current ownership in 2011-12, they did it in a similar fashion. Having apparently thrown the league away, Manchester United ‘bottled it’ and allowed their city rivals back in on the final day, only for the simplicity of City’s final day task at home to QPR to overwhelm them for 92 of the 96 minutes at hand.
The pressure of the occasion undoubtedly told on them. In the 2022-23 Bundesliga season, Borussia Dortmund were primed to snatch the title from Bayern Munich for the first time in over a decade only to draw a presentable home fixture 2-2 with Mainz on the final day and lose the title on goal difference. I think it is significant that when Liverpool broke their long title duck in 2020, Manchester City did not challenge them in any meaningful way and the run-in was a procession.
Pressure contorts objects from their usual shapes and, for some objects, it can cause them to break entirely. Pressure is as much an opponent for Arsenal in this title race as Manchester City. However, title wins, in my view, are often powered by ‘booster’ results too. Typically, there will be a handful of these in a season, victories achieved either over rivals (be they geographical or sporting) or else in moments of doubt.
Think of 1997-98, in March Arsenal were beginning to gather some momentum. But winning 1-0 at Old Trafford on March 14th (I didn’t even have to look up the date) undoubtedly acted as a set of jumper cables for the run-in. Arsenal won their next eight Premier League games after that result, which took them to the title.
In 2001-02, there was a fulminating home win over Manchester United in November, which Arsene Wenger referred to as the first real moment that his team began to believe they could win the title. But a win at Anfield in December with 10 men was the real ‘booster’ result for that season.
Achieved on the back of a 3-1 home defeat against Newcastle, the win on Merseyside begat a run that saw Arsenal win 18 and draw three of their last 21 league games. In 2003-04, I think Arsenal had a number of these ‘jumping off’ points. They beat Chelsea at home in October, the first time they had played Chelsea under Abramovic’s ownership. They also won at Anfield that month.
We remember the Invincibles season as something of a procession but there was jeopardy when the Gunners visited Stamford Bridge in February. The subsequent 2-1 win in West London felt significant beyond the three points itself. There was an economies of scale effect of Arsenal as increased their belief while Chelsea’s diminished. Of course, we all remember (assuming we are old enough!) how the 4-2 victory over Liverpool at Highbury on Good Friday broke the gathering tension of quickfire cup exits to Manchester United and Chelsea.
Such results don’t even need to come against your rivals in competitive terms (you can see where I am going with this…) Victories achieved in adversity or in moments of doubt can act as a defibrillator too. On Good Friday 2004, Liverpool were still very unlikely to usurp Arsenal in the table, but the nature of the victory, achieved after going 1-0 and then 2-1 down during a traumatic week (as well as Liverpool’s overall stature) multiplied the winning effect.
If we cast our eyes elsewhere for a second, Federico Macheda’s dramatic stoppage time winner for Manchester United at home to Aston Villa on 5 April 2009 is widely identified as the moment that United sealed that title from a psychological aspect. When it comes to this campaign for Arsenal, so far, this sense of a ‘booster’ victory has been a little absent.
Winning at Old Trafford was expected (at that time) and an opening day victory just cannot fall into the booster category. Arsenal drew at home to Manchester City and Liverpool and lost at Anfield. St. James’ Park has been their only arguable amplifying victory until now. A ground where they have a sketchy recent record, won in the dying minutes having trailed 1-0 until the 83rd minute.
Arsenal won five and drew one of their next six league games after Gabriel’s stoppage time header on Tyneside. Strangely, Arsenal’s season since then has been defined more by their response to defeats than to victories. The Gunners didn’t lose for 12 Premier League games after stumbling at Liverpool.
After a stoppage time loss at Villa Park, Arteta’s side won five in a row in the league. Arsenal’s response to losing at home to Manchester United was to batter Leeds and Sunderland. At this point, you probably know what I am going to say. Sunday’s 4-1 win at Spurs needs to take on significance beyond bragging rights and beyond the three points.
Even if Spurs are in disarray (lol), the victory and the performance arrived at a time of doubt and at a time when any other result would (understandably) have been portrayed as the first wheel skidding unceremoniously to the side of the road. For the run-in, Arsenal’s visit to Dr. Tottenham has to be the booster shot that propels them into the final weeks of the season.
