When Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, it quickly annexed Crimea and sent its troops to Ukraine’s eastern regions.
Moscow’s primary target was the Donbas, the area which includes two of Ukraine’s regions, Donetsk and Luhansk.
More than 10 years later, Russia is still trying to get complete control of the Donbas, pushing its territorial demands into the “peace framework,” mediated by the US.
Washington has ramped up its pressure on Kyiv, forcing Ukraine into significant concessions, while Russia’s commitment would be to “simply stop fighting,” US President Donald Trump said earlier.
“They (the Russians) are making concessions. Their big concession is they stop fighting, and they don’t take any more land,” Trump stated.
Ukraine is expected to make significantly larger concessions, with security guarantees, the status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, and the Donbas being the most sensitive points of negotiation.
Moscow has not scaled down on its demands and wants Ukraine to leave the Donbas region, including parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions Russia has failed to occupy over more than a decade of war.
The Kremlin’s foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, who has allegedly worked on Russia’s initial 28-point proposal, falsely stated on Friday that “the whole of the Donbas belongs to Russia.”
According to the leaked plan, Moscow not only wants Ukraine to withdraw from its own territories, but it also wants the US to recognise the Donbas as Russian**.**
Who is controlling Donbas?
After over a decade of Russian troops’ assaults, Ukraine’s Luhansk region is almost entirely under Moscow’s occupation.
But the situation is different in the Donetsk region, where Ukrainian forces currently hold about 6,600 square kilometres.
According to the US-based Institute for the Study of War think tank (ISW), even with the current pace of advances and massive resources commitment, Russian forces could seize the rest of the Donetsk region only by August 2027.
This area is also heavily fortified by Ukrainian troops after over a decade of fierce defence from the Russian offensive.
Kyiv has been continuously strengthening its Donbas “fortress belt,” which runs 50km through western Donetsk.
“Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the fortress belt and establishing significant defence industrial and defensive infrastructure,” ISW states.
Following Russia’s occupation of several cities in Ukraine, including Avdiivka and Bakhmut, Kyiv adjusted its defence line and further reinforced its network of fortifications, trenches, minefields and anti-tank barriers.
Donbas economic potential
Before Russia’s first invasion of 2014, the Donbas was Ukraine’s economic powerhouse. This area was home to the country’s largest industrial enterprises, including metallurgical, coal and chemical plants that exported globally.
The London-based Centre for Economic and Business Research estimates that the Donbas region accounted for approximately 15.7% of Ukraine’s GDP and 14.7% of its population before 2014.
After Russia’s invasion, between 2014 and 2021, Ukraine lost over €80 billion from Moscow’s occupation of this territory, or about 8% of the country’s pre-war GDP each year.
Earlier this year Ukraine’s last operating coal mine was forced to shut down in the area.
Meanwhile, the US has sought to establish a “free economic zone” in parts of the Donbas that Ukraine currently controls, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, adding that Washington wants Kyiv to withdraw from those territories.
Will Ukraine withdraw from Donbas?
Zelenskyy explained on Thursday that the US suggests Ukraine withdraw from the Donbas and that Russian troops would not advance into the territory.
“Who will govern this territory, which they are calling a ‘free economic zone’ or a ‘demilitarised zone,’ they don’t know,” Zelenskyy said.
“If one side’s troops have to retreat and the other side stays where they are, then what will hold back these other troops, the Russians? Or what will stop them disguising themselves as civilians and taking over this free economic zone? This is all very serious,” Zelenskyy stated.
“It’s not a fact that Ukraine would agree to it, but if you are talking about a compromise, then it has to be a fair compromise.”
He explained that if Ukraine did agree to such a scheme, there would need to be elections or a referendum to ratify it, saying that only “the Ukrainian people” could make decisions on territorial concessions.
Between 2014 and 2021 at least 2 million Ukrainians were forced to flee their homes in the Donbas because of the fighting, according to UN data. Roughly the same number of people continued to live under Russian occupation.
