The risks of escalation between the two nuclear-armed nations is real | Photo: OlegD / Shutterstock
Let’s get one thing straight: the India-Pakistan border isn’t just a line on a map—it’s a fault line, and it’s trembling again and escalating quickly, although to those who understand the past behind both countries’ ties, it comes as no surprise.
It all began in 1947, following the violent partition into two nations following independence from Great Britain. The primary focus, however, is Kashmir, a Himalaya region both countries claim.
The current conflict began on April 22nd, when gunmen opened fire on tourists in Kashmir, killing 26 people. India said it identified three of the attackers, two of them as Pakistanis, and accused them of being terrorists rising against Indian rule in Muslim-majority Kashmir.
India, which has long accused Pakistan of aiding Islamist separatists, immediately downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan and vowed to suspend a crucial water-sharing treaty. Pakistan banned India’s planes from its airspace and halted cross-border trade.
Pakistan denied any involvement and called for a credible and neutral investigation into the attack, and warned it was preparing for a humanitarian response in case of further escalation.
‘To the ends of Earth’
Under pressure from an infuriated public, Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to hunt the culprits “to the ends of the Earth.”
Then, India launched Operation Sindoor “against terrorist structure,” its officials claimed. It included a barrage of missiles into Pakistan territory this Wednesday making good on Modi’s threat, CNN confirmed. However, news reports say the rockets came down on mosques and a medical clinic.
Meanwhile, India’s defence ministry insisted the strikes were “measured” and avoided military targets, but with evidence at plain sight, which includes dozens of dead civilians, that claim is raising doubts.
A Pakistani military spokesperson told Reuters that 24 strikes hit six locations, killing 26 civilians and injuring dozens more. In Bahawalpur, resident Muhammad Sabir described the chaos: “I heard three or four loud explosions in a row. We ran to the fields and lay down.”
Pakistan claims its forces shot down five Indian fighter jets in what is now considered the worst fighting in more than 20 years between two nuclear-armed enemies.
To a ‘cowardly attack … a robust response’
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif didn’t mince words either. “The deceitful enemy has carried out cowardly attacks,” he said in a statement, pledging a “robust response.”
The escalation has UN’s António Guterres “very concerned,” urging “maximum military restraint.”
Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst, told Reuters: “Given the scale of the Indian strike, we can expect a sizable Pakistani response.”
‘The escalation risks are real’
Saying we should not believe this is just about terrorist camps, Kugelman reiterated, “These are two strong militaries that, even with nuclear weapons as a deterrent, are not afraid to deploy sizeable levels of conventional military force against each other,” Kugelman said. “The escalation risks are real. And they could well increase, and quickly.”
India has reported briefing the US, UK, and Russia, signalling global stakes, while Pakistan has appealed to the UN Security Council. With both sides armed to the teeth and nuclear arsenals in play, the world over has an eye on this conflict.
The history behind this conflict
1965: SECOND WAR OVER KASHMIR: Still seeking control over Kashmir, Pakistani forces crossed into India’s portion of the disputed region. Indian responded with a military incursion across the boundary or border known as the Radcliffe Line, which runs from Punjab to Gujarat and Sindh.
The fighting expanded outside Kashmir into many settled borders, seeing pitched battles involving ground and air forces, and some of the biggest tank battles in history.
1971: WAR OVER EAST PAKISTAN: The neighbours fought their third war over Pakistan’s eastern region, where local groups sought independence from the federal government. Thousands of people died in the conflict, which ended in India helping the region secede, creating the independent country of Bangladesh.
1999: KARGIL WAR: The countries faced off in Kargil after Pakistani troops infiltrated Indian-administered Kashmir. It was the first clash since both officially gained nuclear weapons capability, raising the risks of a catastrophic war.
Some more context
At independence, the countries were split along religious lines, with Pakistan becoming predominantly Muslim and India choosing secular democracy for its mostly Hindu population. The drawing of new borders by the British uprooted almost 14 million people and resulted in sectarian violence that killed as many as 1 million.
India and Pakistan have fought wars since then, two of them over Kashmir, with scores of skirmishes in between. Pakistan’s leaders have seen India as an existential threat since the partition; some think India still harbours hopes of reversing the split.
Today, they face off along a 740-kilometre de facto boundary, one of the world’s most militarised zones. The region also includes two areas controlled by China and claimed by India.
