Edited excerpts from a chat with Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited on trading strategy for the week ahead:
Nifty has been struggling to move sustainably higher than the 25,000-mark for the last few weeks, as visible this time again. On the fundamental side, triggers are missing, but why is 25k such an important level to watch out for on the charts?
Yes, 25k is indeed a daunting challenge. Previous attempts to clear the same had proved to be short-lived as there was hardly any follow-through momentum, thus leading to a sharp withdrawal. Hence, the reapproach of the 25k mount is accompanied by concerns about sustainability. Being at the upper Bollinger band as well, it would require further momentum to continue the uptrend. ADX at 13.2 does not indicate strong momentum either. Nevertheless, upswing attempts may be seen initially, but may not clear the 25200-460 band. Alternatively, inability to float above 25045 could see dips, but will wait for 24865 to switch sides.
Give us your trading strategy for Nifty monthly expiry next week. What are the levels to watch out for?
We would be entering the expiry week with a surprise jump above 25000, that has attracted call OTM buyers only as far as 25500. The same pattern is visible in the 3rd July expiry contract as well with PE buying accumulated at 24800. This raises the expectation of a trading range limited to the 25500-24800 region, calling for a short strangle option strategy with these at the strikes for the two legs. An alternative approach would be to short straddle at 25000, with stop loss placed at 25500 and 24800 on either side.
With BSE and NSE swapping their expiry days with effect from September, how would your trading strategy change when it comes to index options?
Monday is now sandwiched between the weekend and expiry, elevating the caution that is usually commanded by day. Even though Monday has to deal with weekend news flows, there is always an optimism, being the start of the week. But with expiry falling on Tuesday, such vibes will be restrained. This would mean that premium expansion and directional entry-exits will be largely front loaded, as there will be little opportunity to escape from theta decay post Thursday, with Friday being the weekend eve and Monday being the expiry eve.For derivative traders, Thursday has been associated with Nifty expiry day for many years. Now with Sensex coming in on Thursday, how do you see trader interest evolving in Sensex contracts?
Since late 2023, Sensex F&O has seen a steady increase in trading volume. Between March and December 2024, it consistently accounted for about 70% of the total trading volume across both the NSE and BSE. This momentum accelerated further in January 2025, when the Sensex saw a 12% month-on-month volume spike, coinciding with its shift in weekly expiry from Friday to Tuesday. Now, a new phase of expiry restructuring is set to reshape this dynamic. From September 2025, the Nifty will move its expiry to Tuesday, while the Sensex will shift to Thursday. This change could significantly alter the volume patterns across the two exchanges.
Nifty may reclaim lost ground with Tuesday expiries, attracting traders looking to capitalize on early-week strategies and weekend time decay. This could lead to increased activity on Mondays and Tuesdays. Meanwhile, with Thursday as the new expiry, Sensex will see shorter positioning windows earlier in the week, which may temper the intense volume surges, especially on the expiry day. That said, the new trading dynamics will take a while to play out, and it is also possible that Sensex will get more opportunities to price the events of the week, having more trading days ahead of expiry. Time will tell.
The broader market underperformed this week. Are the charts hinting at a revival in small and midcaps?
The weakness in the small and mid-caps was visible throughout the week. On Thursday, when Nifty closed almost flat, the small cap 250 index fell nearly 2%. And on Friday, when Nifty rose 1.29%, small cap 250 index rose only 0.6%. Friday’s optimistic rise has not managed to retrace even 50% of Thursday’s fall, raising fears of an extended fall to 16650-16500. Alternatively, a rise above 16900 will help shrug off the weakness, but we feel that upsides may be limited.
Waaree Energies surprised investors on Friday with a sharp 12% jump. How to trade the stock on Monday?
An outright jump from one end to the other end of the Bollinger will render the stock unattractive to jump into right away. But we feel that the April 2025 peak, which the stock has attempted several times unsuccessfully, will be broken in this attempt. Longs entered on dips to 2895 may have stop loss placed below 2822.
Give us your top ideas for the week ahead
VIPIND (CMP: 409)
Target – 450
Stoploss – 399
The stock recently confirmed a breakout from an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern and continues to maintain its upward momentum. On the monthly chart, the SMIO histogram has crossed above the zero line, suggesting a shift in long-term sentiment. Additionally, the RSI is holding near 60, indicating sustained strength without being overbought. On the daily timeframe, the appearance of an inverted hammer—a classic bullish reversal signal following a dip—adds further conviction to the upside potential.
Based on this technical setup, the stock is expected to move toward the 450 mark in the near term. To manage risk, a stop-loss should be placed just below ₹399.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
