Bitcoin (BTC) is eyeing new April highs as macro instability suddenly delivers a tailwind for BTC price performance.
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Bitcoin is on the way up, nearing $88,000, but few market participants are willing to trust the strength of snap price moves.
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A new macro week dawns in the shadow of the US trade war, with Federal Reserve speakers lining up to take to the stage.
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Gold is shattering all-time highs again, but this time Bitcoin is starting to react.
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US dollar weakness exhibits historic traits as three-year lows spark bullish predictions for Bitcoin and commodities.
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The newest BTC hodlers are already profiting from the latest move, but speculators are waiting for a reclaimation of $91,000.
BTC price spike met with skepticism
Bitcoin is starting the week off right with a 3% rise on the back of fresh macroeconomic turmoil amid the US-China trade war.
BTC/USD reached $87,705 after the April 20 weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, its highest in nearly three weeks.
Reacting, however, traders have been cautious, highlighting the unreliable nature of volatile moves that begin during non-TradFi trading hours on weekends.
“Nice breakout, but it’s on low volume,” trading resource Stockmoney Lizards wrote in part of a response on X.
“WIll definitely need confirmation. In any case, you shouldn’t be too euphoric yet.”
Never like to trust a Sunday pump – lots of false breakouts here by the looks of it. Lets see what next week brings pic.twitter.com/cVE1j1Gh63
— Honeybadger (@HoneybadgerC) April 21, 2025
Fellow trading account IncomeSharks shared similar views, saying that BTC price strength must continue in the face of weak equities.
“Nice to see the downtrend breakout but the timing is important,” it said.
“Sunday is not a day to celebrate a low volume pump while stock markets are closed. If you want to see a bullish moves lets see stocks open red tomorrow and keep this candle green. Then we can have fun.”
Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe continued the lukewarm reaction to the upside on both Bitcoin and gold, predicting that they “probably will give it back.”
“Needs to get above $88,804 to break the series of lower highs and lower lows,” trader, analyst and podcast host Scott Melker, known as the “Wolf of All Streets,” added.
“Is it time?”
Fed policy in spotlight as officials speak
The coming days will see the Federal Reserve take the spotlight as senior officials comment on the current macroeconomic landscape.
A total of eight Federal Reserve presidents will shed fresh light on what is an increasingly contentious status quo for the US, with the Fed at odds with demands from President Donald Trump.
Last week, Trump even called for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to be fired, a move that sparked concerns over US economic stability.
Powell has repeatedly come out hawkish on financial policy, hinting at being in no rush to lower interest rates as Trump’s trade war fuels inflation concerns.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool reflects this, with traders seeing a rate cut likely only at the Fed’s June meeting.
With little by way of new macro data due for release, however, markets will continue to focus on the trade war itself, along with the volatility it often creates.
The start of the week has been no exception so far; China issuing warnings over collaboration with the US to isolate it immediately sent stock futures tumbling while gold soared to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin, in a break with recent tradition, managed to copy gold’s optimism instead of following equities lower.
“Gold has hit its 55th all-time high in 12 months and Bitcoin is officially joining the run, now above $87,000,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter responded in part of an X post on the topic.
“The narrative in both Gold and Bitcoin is aligning for the first time in years: Gold and Bitcoin are telling us that a weaker US Dollar and more uncertainty are on the way.”
Gold nears record $3,400 on trade war fears
Gold remains the standout bullish story for 2025.
Amid the uncertainty wrought by the trade war and its potential long-term impact on inflation and global assets, XAU/USD has exploded nearly 30% year-to-date.
The pair is currently circling a record $3,400 per ounce, and while some have warned that a “blow-off top” is due, momentum refuses to slow down.
Kobeissi suggested that Trump’s latest trade-war post on social media, in the form of a “non-tariff cheating” sheet, helped reignite gold’s relentless march higher.
“President Trump’s ‘non-tariff cheating’ list is arguably one of the best things to happen to gold all year,” it argued.
“Gold knows what’s coming next.”
Kobeissi revealed that gold had, in fact, outperformed the S&P 500 since the COVID-19 cross-market crash in March 2020.
For Bitcoin, however, change appears to be afoot. As Cointelegraph reported, BTC/USD has finally begun to mimic gold’s reaction to macro uncertainty after spending months in a downtrend.
As that downtrend is slowly left behind, talk is turning to historical precedent. In the past, Bitcoin breakouts have lagged gold by around three months.
“After futures opened it didn’t take long for $BTC and $GOLD to move up quickly as equities moved down,” trader Daan Crypto Trades told X followers.
“Pretty interesting move which is now compounding on the relative strength BTC has already been showing for weeks.”
Dollar strength plumbs new 3-year lows
Adding to the mix is fresh US dollar weakness, something that hedge fund creator Andreas Steno Larsen described as a “good early sign for Bitcoin.”
“We ain’t seen nothing yet, if this continues (and if Powell is laid off),” he argued on X alongside a chart of BTC versus USD returns.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks greenback strength against a basket of major US trading partner currencies, was down another 1.3% on April 21 at the time of writing. This, in turn, brought the year-to-date downside to nearly 10%.
Now at its lowest levels since March 2022, DXY is being heralded as the powder keg to spark a giant bull run in both Bitcoin and commodities.
“The US Dollar has gone ‘no bid,’ teetering on a historic 14-yr uptrend breakdown from 2011,” trading resource Rock Bottom Entries told X followers.
“Forget 2016 & 2020—this will ignite a 2000s-style commodity supercycle.”
Bitcoin traditionally outperforms to the upside during periods of rapid DXY suppression, an inverse correlation that has been lacking in recent times.
“Contrary to what you hear on social media, Bitcoin has been in lockstep with DXY for a couple of years,” analyst Joe Dean thus commented on the phenomenon.
“DXY overshot to the upside, then the downside, and will likely find its way back to the mean. $BTC will likely follow.”
Bitcoin newbies back in the black
Short-term BTC price moves are already making a tangible difference to certain Bitcoin investor cohorts.
Related: Bitcoin prepares for launch from $85K, BNB, HYPE, TAO and RNDR could follow
New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that even a tap of $87,000 has placed the most recent set of buyers in the black, with an average 3.7% profit.
“This is a short-term bullish signal, showing renewed confidence and reduced panic risk among the newest market entrants,” CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts.
The move comes in contrast to the large short-term holder (STH) cohort, comprised of buyers up to six months old, which has an aggregate cost basis of $91,000.
As Cointelegraph reported, STH cost bases can act as both support and resistance for extended periods as speculative hodlers react to sudden price swings.
“Until BTC closes above the $91K threshold, Short-Term Holders remain in loss. This may sustain latent sell pressure, especially if price momentum weakens — reinforcing the importance of a decisive breakout above STH realized price to neutralize this overhang,” CryptoQuant added.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
