Nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised 185,000 advance in March, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 62,000 jobs after a previously reported 178,000 rebound in March.
Estimates ranged from a loss of 15,000 jobs to a gain of 150,000 positions. Economists said it was too early for the effects of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran to show. The conflict has raised gasoline and diesel prices as well as the cost of other commodities that are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
Payrolls have been choppy since mid-2025, alternating between gains and losses. Economists have attributed the swings to an adjustment to the birth-and-death model, which the government uses to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month. Some said a large turnover in firms created was making it hard for the BLS to estimate job creation associated with new companies.
Weather, strikes and government job cuts as well as big changes to the labor force as President Donald Trump’s administration cracks down on illegal immigration have also added to volatility, they said. Economists recommended looking at the three-month moving average of payrolls.
The labor market has been stuck in what economists and policymakers have called a “slow hire, slow fire” zone, a paralysis blamed on trade and immigration policies. Lower immigration and an aging population meant the economy needed to create between zero and 50,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population, economists estimated.
With the so-called breakeven level of job growth much lower than in prior years, they did not expect a surge in the unemployment rate, even if employment gains slowed considerably.The report bolstered financial market views that the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged into 2027. The U.S. central bank last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, citing inflation worries.
