Bitcoin bears may find it harder to remain confident in a near-term price dip, according to crypto analyst who points out that the pro-crypto macro environment signals new all-time highs are likely by the end of March.
“The air is getting very thin for bears right now. We expect Bitcoin to hit fresh highs by the end of the quarter,” crypto exchange Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph.
Volatility levels return to the US election period
Hundal pointed out that the Bitcoin (BTC) market has returned to the volatility levels last seen in November, around the US election and before the “initial euphoria” that followed Donald Trump’s victory as President.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $102,470, as per CoinMarketCap data.
“Volatility has just run out of puff, and in the short term, that could spell danger for speculators,” Hundal said.
“We’re in the neighborhood where volatility looks ready to kick higher, and that’s important because it could be deadly for both sides of the market,” he added.
Ahead of the US election results, trader uncertainty triggered significant liquidations.
On Nov. 4, the day before Trump’s victory was confirmed, crypto market liquidations almost reached $350 million as Bitcoin briefly dropped below $69,000, with Trump’s odds of winning on Polymarket narrowing.
However, Hundal said the crypto market is about to enter “the most accommodative era of policy making in the history of crypto, and apathy is taking over.”
Crypto commentators divided on Bitcoin’s Q1 performance
He said he never recalls seeing “such a mismatch” between the macro conditions in crypto and investor sentiment.
On Dec. 14, asset management firm VanEck predicted that Bitcoin would reach a medium-term peak in Q1 and hit new highs by Q4 2025.
Related: Bitcoin’s February momentum hinges on next week’s labor market data
Meanwhile, other crypto commentators are split on where Bitcoin’s price is headed in Q1.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin could potentially pull back toward the $70,000 to $75,000 range, a move that may trigger a “mini financial crisis.”
However, Derive head of research Dr. Sean Dawson said Bitcoin has less than a 10% chance of dropping to the $75,000 level in Q1.
Magazine: Pectra hard fork explained — Will it get Ethereum back on track?
