SUDEEP SHAH, HEAD TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES RESEARCH, SBI SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed this week?
We expect the index to witness consolidation in 23,800 to 24,400 range which is also the 100-day exponential moving average. Above 24,400, we expect a bigger short-covering move up to 24,800-25,000 levels. Any move below 23,800 zone, would lead to the acceleration of downward momentum towards 23,500-23,400 levels. An important data point to note is from a seasonality perspective where over the past 18 years, the December month has often exhibited a positive trend for Nifty. On 12 occasions, the index has concluded on a positive note with an average gain of 4%, while on 6 occasions, it has ended on a negative note with an average loss of 1.75%.
What should investors do?
This phase of consolidation presents a strong opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate quality large-cap & midcap names at attractive prices. We expect banking, IT, defence and realty to witness outperformance; while oil & gas, auto and FMCG could continue to remain under pressure. Large-cap stocks such as Bharti Airtel, L&T, and HDFC Bank can be looked upon on dips; while select midcap stocks such as Polycab, LIC, Ramco Cement, BEML, Hudco and BEL are expected to display outperformance in the coming week.
MEHUL KOTHARI, AVP TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ANAND RATHI SHARES & STOCK BROKERS
Where is Nifty headed?
For Nifty, a breakout from the falling channel is evident, and the daily and weekly RSI levels are now in a comfortable range, signalling further upside potential. The overall price action suggests the formation of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which will be validated on a closing basis above 24,350. This could propel the index toward 25,000. Additionally, the FII long-short ratio in index futures remains at 33%, indicating a significant presence of short positions in the system. A decisive breakout could trigger short covering, providing further upward momentum. Looking ahead, we maintain an optimistic outlook as the market moves into the December series. On the downside, immediate supports are at 23,900 and 23,700, while a close above 24,350 could confirm the bullish trajectory.What should investors Do?
Traders are advised to maintain an optimistic outlook. The primary concerns are geopolitical, which could disrupt market sentiment. However, in case of no such escalation, markets may witness an extended pullback. We anticipate strong performance in the coming weeks from large-cap stocks such as Maruti, M&M, and Tata Motors driven by favourable sectoral momentum. In the midcap space, stocks like Waaree Energy, Hindustan Zinc, and Himatsingka exhibit potential for upside movement, supported by technical and fundamental factors.TANMAY SHAH, MD & RESEARCH HEAD, SIHL
Where is Nifty headed?
In November, the Dollar Index surged to 107, putting downward pressure on commodities and emerging markets. However, it has now entered a resistance zone and is experiencing a pullback, which is positive for Indian markets. Chart indicates a potential trend reversal. In the near term, a close above 24,350 could signal further upside potential, driving the Nifty toward the 24,850 level, while 23,800 remains a strong support level.
What should investors do?
The markets appear to have completed a cyclical correction. Last week Nifty closed above the 20-day moving average, highlighting relative strength. From a broader perspective, mid-cap and smallcap indices also have performed well, suggesting increased confidence in the market. Investors may consider buying fundamentally strong large-cap stocks. Sectors poised for favourable performance include pharma, infrastructure & PSU banks. Among large caps, Sun Pharma, Larsen & Toubro, ITC and Tata Steel are of interest. In the mid-cap space, the Bank of Maharashtra, Petronet LNG and Container Corp appear promising. In the small-cap segment, Rallis India, NBCC (India) and Borosil are favoured.
