Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, is under fire from its users following the resolution of a prediction market regarding banning TikTok in the United States.
The market, titled “TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?” was resolved to “Yes” on Jan. 20, after the US Supreme Court upheld a law banning the Chinese-owned app due to national security concerns.
This decision sparked controversy among bettors, with many accusing Polymarket of manipulating the outcome.
What happened?
The prediction market, which saw $120 million in trading volume, focused on whether TikTok would be banned in the US before May 2025. On Jan. 19, the ban went into effect, with TikTok displaying a message to users that the app would no longer be accessible.
The Biden administration justified the ban on grounds that TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, posed an “unacceptable threat to national security” by allegedly collecting user data on behalf of a “designated foreign adversary.”
However, just a day later, TikTok announced that it would remain accessible for 75 more days following an intervention by President Donald Trump, who temporarily halted the ban to negotiate a deal with ByteDance.
This led to confusion among Polymarket users, who argued that TikTok was not effectively banned since it remains operational for most Americans.
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Community backlash
Sky, a Polymarket user, questioned the platform, “The ban didn’t happen, and TikTok is working fine for most Americans. Trump gave it an extension literally live. So why is it 99% Yes?”
Another user, silkroad69, defended the decision.
“A law banning TikTok was created and took effect on Jan. 19. The market never said anything about temporary extensions.”
Spot, another bettor, labeled the decision “disgusting” and called the platform a “scam.”
A petition demanding accountability for alleged manipulation in the TikTok market vote has surfaced, though it has gathered fewer than 100 signatures.
Polymarket’s dispute resolution process
Polymarket relies on UMA’s Optimistic Oracle (OO) to resolve its prediction markets. The OO provides initial outcomes for disputes, which can escalate to UMA’s Data Verification Mechanism (DVM) if contested.
In this case, the DVM process was bypassed, and the market resolved directly to “Yes,” leading to accusations of manipulation.
This isn’t the first time Polymarket has faced criticism.
In May 2024, Polymarket users challenged UMA’s resolution on an Ethereum ETF prediction market.
In June 2024, a market regarding Barron Trump’s alleged involvement in a memecoin sparked outrage when Polymarket overruled UMA’s resolution and refunded bettors against UMA’s verdict.
Polymarket is reportedly seeking $50 million in funding to enhance its operations. The platform reportedly plans to introduce tokens that would allow users to validate outcomes.
Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket for comment but did not receive a response at the time of publication.
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