Key takeaways:
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Heavy liquidations played a role in Bitcoin’s return to $95,000.
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Bitcoin’s weakening correlation with stocks highlights its growing independence as an asset.
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Bullish institutional investor positioning contrasts with retail traders’ caution, supporting a rally above $100,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) gained 11% between April 20 and April 26, demonstrating resilience by holding near its two-month high around $94,000. This relief rally followed signals from the Trump administration about easing import tariffs, as well as strong corporate earnings reports.
Investor confidence in Bitcoin was further boosted by a record $3.1 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over five days. However, a key BTC derivatives indicator showed signs of bearish momentum, raising questions about whether the $100,000 target is still realistic.
Perpetual Bitcoin futures contracts are favored by retail traders because their prices closely track the spot market. A positive funding rate means that buyers pay to maintain their positions, so a reversal in this rate is typically linked to bearish trends.
The sharp negative funding rates recorded on April 26 are highly unusual during bull markets, as they indicate stronger demand from sellers. This metric has been volatile since April 14, but sellers were caught off guard as Bitcoin’s price climbed above $94,000. Since April 21, over $450 million in BTC short positions have been liquidated.
Some of the renewed confidence and Bitcoin’s price strength can be attributed to the S&P 500’s 7.1% weekly gain. However, despite this optimism, US President Donald Trump reportedly said on April 25 that negotiations would depend on China making concessions, causing traders to question the sustainability of recent gains.
Companies are now reporting first-quarter earnings from before the escalation of the trade war, so the factors driving the stock market and Bitcoin are different. In fact, Bitcoin’s price is no longer closely correlated with the S&P 500.
Currently, the 30-day correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin stands at 29%, well below the 60% level seen from March to mid-April. While this lower correlation does not mean a complete decoupling, since investor sentiment is still influenced by macroeconomic factors, it does show that Bitcoin is not simply a proxy for technology stocks.
Bitcoin’s status as an independent asset has strengthened
Gold’s inability to maintain its bullish momentum after reaching an all-time high of $3,500 on April 22 was also seen as significant for Bitcoin’s status as an independent asset class. Some traders had questioned the “digital gold” narrative, but the longer BTC remains above $90,000, the more confidence investors may have, potentially paving the way for further gains.
The increased demand for bearish leverage in perpetual BTC futures does not align with the sentiment of professional traders. Monthly Bitcoin futures contracts avoid fluctuating funding rates, so traders know their leverage costs in advance.
On April 26, the two-month Bitcoin futures premium (basis rate) rose to its highest level in seven weeks, indicating greater interest in bullish positions. At 6.5%, this metric remains within the neutral 5% to 10% range, but is moving away from bearish territory.
The disconnect between leverage demand in perpetual futures and monthly BTC contracts is not unusual. Even if retail traders remain cautious, substantial accumulation by institutions could be enough to push Bitcoin’s price above $100,000 in the near future.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
