NASA upgrades asteroid warning: Major impact odds now highest in recorded history.
Credit: Shutterstock, NicoElNino
NASA has once again upped the odds of the 2024 YR4 asteroid impact to 1-in-32, from just 1% last month. The odds have already increased before and are now creeping up again unfortunately. Now, at 1-in-32, these are the worst odds in NASA’s history. The asteroid has been described as being ‘the size of a football pitch’, and would cause ‘severe damage’ in the ‘unlikely event of collision with Earth’ according to experts. However, they insist there is no need to panic as the odds are still relatively small.
Scientists have cranked up the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 smashing into Earth in 2032, giving it a 1-in-32 shot at impact. That’s 3.1%, an increase from just 1% last month. The 90-metre-wide menace – which could potentially wipe out entire cities in the unlikely event it were to hit Earth – is now ranked the biggest threat ever recorded by NASA’s Centre for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).
According to NASA, “In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 is on an impact trajectory, the impact would occur somewhere along a risk corridor which extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.”
Scientists are collecting more data on the asteroid’s orbit and trajectory. NASA insist that many other objects previously listed on NASA JPL’s asteroid risk register, have eventually been ruled out as a threat. However, NASA has also warned that there is also a chance that its impact risk may increase further.
‘Impact risk corridor’ mapped
Experts have now mapped out a chilling ‘impact risk corridor,’ revealing that more than 100 million people live in areas that could be directly hit if the worst possible scenario were to happen.
Though a full-blown planet-destroying event is currently unlikely, 2024 YR4 is no pebble – and a collision could unleash devastation on a scale never seen in modern times.
NASA still ranks the asteroid as a 3 on the Torino Scale, which rates both likelihood and potential destruction. The scale maxes out at 10 – reserved for ‘dinosaur killer’ apocalypses – but due to its size, 2024 YR4 could only ever reach an eight. That’s still bad news for anyone in the blast zone.
Time is of the essence
The asteroid is moving fast and flying away from Earth, meaning astronomers only have until April to study it before it disappears from view. Once it’s gone, they won’t get another look until 2028 – and by then, it could be too late to act.
Scientists are scrambling to refine their estimates, but one thing is clear: this is the highest chance of a major asteroid impact ever recorded in human history.
Brace yourselves – because this is one space rock that won’t just bounce off the atmosphere if it comes knocking.
According to NASA; as scientists gather more data on the asteroid’s orbit, the probability of impact will become clearer. Like many other objects previously listed on NASA JPL’s asteroid risk register, 2024 YR4 could eventually be ruled out as a threat. However, there is also a chance that its impact risk may increase. NASA will continue to update its automated Sentry page with the latest calculations, and further updates will be shared on the agency’s planetary defence blog.
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