The big news that we all have been tracking is indeed the Moody’s downgrade coming in for the US credit rating and that is from AAA to double A1 citing balloon of the debt and rising interest cost as well and we all know that what kind of a debt obligations the US economy does have in the times ahead. What do you make of this downgrade and what implications can it have on the markets?
Santosh Rao: So, the headline is never good when you get a rating downgrade. But I do not see this affecting the market any materially because this is a lagging indicator as the treasury secretary just said. So, I do not see that as a big reason. But there is an issue of the budget deficits and debt and all that, that has been overhanging and that has been the talk and that is the trend. The Fed chair has said that the trajectory of the fiscal health is not very good, but we are not there yet. It is not bad.
So, I do not expect any major reaction. The headline is bad. Yes, marginally, it is going to have an effect on the yields, people will want more premium for the US debt which was very highest rated all over. So, you will see that marginally, but overall I do not see that as a major news at this point other than a warning shot that things are bad and people are watching and we need to get our house in order.
There are articles today that is saying that all of a sudden you have mini sell America trade that is at play given the fact that you have the Moody’s downgrade coming in and at a time where you are inundated with so much of positive news flow over the last two weeks given the fact that you had the trade truce coming in with China, you had the deal coming in with United Kingdom as well, and a lot of partners actually talking to the United States in order to crack a deal. But how much of this one or the downgrade do you think will actually make people reconsider going into the United States once again?
Santosh Rao: I do not see that happening. It is still the safest currency, safest debt in the whole world. So, I do not think that is a big issue. It is a safe haven I wanted to say that. But overall, the developments in the last week especially President Trump’s trip to the Middle East and all the tariff pullbacks, talk of de-escalation, and also some things happening already, so all that is good and that he has lot of pro-growth policies behind it.
He is going to reduce taxes. He is going to cut expenses. So, he is going to get the benefit of doubt at this point and the market is willing to do that. So, there is a sentiment that things will be okay. The volatility and the turmoil that we had might lessen a little bit down the road. There is some sense of stability to the extent that you can get stability in Trump administration, but that the feeling is that yes, the dust is settling, he has certain policies that will work.
So, let us wait and see. At this point, the market is willing to give him the benefit of doubt. Things will be okay and even the world will because they need the US to really drive the growth engine of the world, global economies. So, the world will be for US at this point and things are falling into place. It will take some time, but they are moving in the right direction, that is what I meant to say. You said the market is giving the benefit of doubt to Donald Trump but what about the Fed because the Fed clearly is not going in tandem with at least what he expects the Fed to do. What is your outlook on when a next rate cut could be on the cards for the Fed given that you have now more economic factors that are at play for the US?
Santosh Rao: One of the big concerns for the Federal chair was the tariff. He did not know where that was going to land. But at this point he is getting a sense that okay, things are moving in the right direction. It is not going to be crazy 140% tariffs, at least not for 90 days and maybe extended even further. So, there is some sense prevailing there on the tariff side.So, he has much more clarity, better clarity, and if he can get a grip, get his handle around that the tariff issue, he is willing to cut because the CPI if you look the last data that came out, the prices are coming down, PPI came down, CPI came down, so that is a good thing and the sentiment is falling, consumer sentiment is kind of softer but that includes a survey done when the tariffs were still on.
I am in that camp because things are moving in the right direction. Yes, he does not want inflation to come back, but if prices are coming down and moving towards him, he will definitely cut one or two rates.
Also, help us with your take on the Indian markets as well. Well, of course, we have seen the FIIs making a strong comeback. If we see Friday’s figure in the cash market though this buying figure is substantially higher, but other than that it was supported by some of the block and the bulk deals as well. But given that once again they are building on to that positive stance for the Indian markets, how sustainable it is and which sectors do you feel that the money is flowing now?
Santosh Rao: India is still the strongest market in terms of growth, fastest growing economy in the world essentially. And I am so glad the war did not go forward because that would have disrupted, affected the sentiment and everything and companies want to move into India and that would have affected, we do not know where the war would have ended.
So, I am so glad that that thing is out of the picture and we are back on the road of kind of building the whole economy. And the outlook is very good for the Indian economy. I do not get at a very granular level, but at a very high level as we look at India, it is always talked about very highly and I guess the proof is in the pudding if FIIs are coming back in that is a good sign.
Fed chair’s decisions definitely weighed on what the US economy was going to do and people were saying it is not the safest heaven that it was, so people were moving money out.
So, net-net I would say things are fine, I would continue to invest in infrastructure. India is great, spending a lot there. Other than that, in the US I can say technology is still big, materials is big, industrials and that is doing very well and the banking sector is going to do well because the economy is expected to pick up. Similarly, there as well I expect the financial sector to do well as well as the infrastructure.
