By Tom Balmforth, Alexander Tanas
CHISINAU (Reuters) -The candidate backed by Moldova’s pro-Russia Socialist Party took a slender lead in the presidential runoff late on Sunday, but the diaspora vote, which is widely seen as supporting pro-Western incumbent Maia Sandu, was yet to be counted.
Two Chisinau-based political analysts, Vladislav Kulminski and Valeriu Pasha, said their assessment was the results indicated Sandu had won a second four-year term and defeated Alexandr Stoianoglo, an ex-prosecutor-general.
With 90% of the vote counted, Stoianoglo was leading with 50.66% of the vote versus Sandu’s 49.44%. His lead could be seen gradually diminishing in real time on the election website as more votes were counted.
The diaspora vote, which includes Moldovans living in Western capitals and favoured Sandu in the Oct. 20 first round, is typically counted last.
Neither Sandu nor Stoianoglo has claimed victory or admitted defeat.
The fortunes of Sandu, who set Moldova on the long path of EU accession talks in June, is closely watched in Brussels a week after Georgia, another ex-Soviet state seeking membership, re-elected a ruling party regarded in the West as increasingly pro-Russian.
The future of Moldova, a poor agricultural nation of fewer than 3 million people, has been in the spotlight since Russia began its full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine in 2022.
The election and the campaign before it have been overshadowed by persistent claims of meddling.
“We’re seeing massive interference by Russia in our electoral process … an effort with high potential to distort the outcome,” Sandu’s national security adviser Stanislav Secrieru wrote on X.
There was no immediate comment from Moscow, which has denied past allegations of meddling. Moldova has accused Ilan Shor, a fugitive oligarch living in Russia, of spending millions of dollars to pay off voters to oppose Sandu. He denies wrongdoing.
Stoianoglo said he supported EU integration, but also wants to develop ties with Russia in the national interest. He wants to renegotiate cheap Russian gas supplies and said he would meet with President Vladimir Putin if Moldovans wanted it.
“I voted for a free, stable and blossoming Moldova that isn’t standing with its hand out, but develops in harmony based on relations with the West and East,” he said after casting his ballot.
The results will set the tone for parliamentary elections next year when Sandu’s party may struggle to retain its majority.
“Today is a crucial day for us… we go in one direction or the other. We didn’t have such an important day in the last 30 years,” said Mihai David, 58, who voted in Chisinau.
Stoianoglo’s East-West balancing rhetoric contrasted with Sandu’s four years in power, during which ties with the Kremlin have unravelled, Moscow’s diplomats have been expelled and she has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moscow calls her government “Russophobic”.
Sandu portrayed Stoianoglo as the Kremlin’s man and a political Trojan horse, painting Sunday’s vote as a choice between a bright future in the EU by 2030 or one of uncertainty and instability.
Stoianoglo said that was untrue and that Sandu had failed to look out for the interests of ordinary Moldovans. He accused her of divisive politics in a country that has a Romanian-speaking majority and large Russian-speaking minority.
