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UK tycoon Mike Lynch’s ill-fated superyacht Bayesian had “vulnerabilities” that made it prone to capsizing in strong winds, a preliminary British investigation has found.
The 56-metre vessel, once described by its builder as “unsinkable”, sank while dragging its anchor off the coast of Sicily last year after being struck by hurricane-force winds. Lynch, his daughter, four friends and a crew member all died, while 15 survivors, including Lynch’s wife, were rescued.
The UK’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) said on Thursday that Bayesian — known for its unusually tall 72-metre mast — capsized after it was knocked flat and water poured inside. The findings are based on evidence gathered before the wreck’s recovery began this month.
In the early hours of 19 August, Bayesian “violently heeled over to 90 degrees to starboard” within 15 seconds, the report said. There was no sign of flooding beforehand, it added, “until water came in over the starboard rails and, within seconds, entered internal spaces via stairwells” — apparently ruling out earlier theories that flooding began through an open hatch.
Both the yacht’s towering mast and the fact that its adjustable keel was in the raised position reduced its stability and left it particularly vulnerable in high winds.
“The findings indicate that the extreme wind experienced by Bayesian was sufficient to knock the yacht over,” said Andrew Moll, chief inspector of marine accidents. “Once the yacht had heeled beyond an angle of 70 degrees, the situation was irrecoverable.”
Another, much older, superyacht nearby, the Sir Robert Baden Powell, also dragged anchor in the same storm but remained afloat. Its crew rescued the survivors from Bayesian.
The MAIB based part of its conclusions on a University of Southampton study, using the yacht’s own “stability information booklet”. The report noted that Bayesian’s vulnerability with the keel raised was not included in the booklet and was therefore “unknown to either the owner or the crew”. It found that wind speeds above 63.4 knots on the beam — from the side — were enough to capsize the yacht.
The MAIB has not issued any safety recommendations and said its conclusions could change as more evidence emerged. The Italian Sea Group, which acquired Bayesian’s builder Perini Navi in 2022, declined to comment.
The investigation continues as salvage efforts resume following the accidental death last week of a Dutch diver working to separate the mast from the hull. Authorities hope to recover the wreck, now lying 50 metres underwater and half a mile from the Sicilian coast, in the next few weeks to gather further evidence.
Italian prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into three crew members, including the captain, shortly after the tragedy, although no one has been formally charged. At the time, The Italian Sea Group denied any design flaws and suggested human errors, such as leaving key doors open, had caused the sinking.
However, the MAIB’s account of the crew’s efforts to manoeuvre the vessel and evacuate passengers concludes that the yacht’s vulnerability in high winds was central to its rapid capsize in the sudden, violent storm.
