It will be a shortened trading week for financial markets due to Easter holidays in Europe and the United States. While risk-aversion sentiment may continue to influence global market movements, key economic data, including manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs), and major corporate earnings are expected to play a critical role in shaping future market trends.
S&P Global is scheduled to release its flash manufacturing and services PMIs for April across major economies on Wednesday. These indices measure business activity based on new orders, employment, and confidence. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a figure below 50 signals contraction.
Europe
In March, the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI improved to 48.6 from 47.6 in February, marking the mildest contraction since January 2023. Germany and France both recorded notable improvements in manufacturing activity. Germany’s PMI rose to 48.3 from 46.5—the highest since August 2022—while France’s reading came in at 48.5, reflecting the softest downturn in over two years. However, “concerns over geopolitical uncertainty and client spending kept optimism in check,” according to the S&P Global report.
Consensus forecasts suggest that business activity may slow in April due to tariff-related economic uncertainty. The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 47.4, with Germany and France forecast to record 47.5 and 47.9, respectively.
The eurozone’s services PMI expanded for the fourth consecutive month in March, with a reading of 51.0, up from 50.6 in February. Germany’s services PMI also posted its fourth consecutive month of expansion, at 50.9. However, the pace of growth slowed as new business declined at the fastest rate in six months amid weak demand and heightened uncertainty. Optimism persisted, driven by Germany’s fiscal expansion, new product launches, and technological progress. In contrast, France’s services sector contracted for the seventh consecutive month, reflecting continued weak demand.
Consensus projections suggest further, albeit softer, growth in April. The eurozone’s services PMI is forecast at 50.4, with Germany and France expected to record 50.3 and 47.6, respectively.
Additionally, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index—a leading indicator of economic health—is due on Thursday. The index rose to 86.7 in March, the highest level since July 2023, supported by historic debt reforms that unlocked billions in funding for defence and infrastructure. However, the index is expected to edge lower this month, likely due to the impact of Trump’s newly announced tariffs.
United Kingdom
In the UK, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 44.9 in March, extending its downturn for a sixth consecutive month and marking the lowest reading in 17 months. Business confidence dropped to a two-and-a-half-year low amid expectations of tighter fiscal policy, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. April’s reading is forecast to decline further to 44.0.
In the services sector, the index was revised up to 52.5 in March from the preliminary estimate of 53.2, the highest since August 2024. However, constrained household budgets and geopolitical tensions are expected to continue weighing on business sentiment. The services PMI is projected to ease to 51.4 in April.
United States
In the US, the manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 50.2 in March from 52.7 in February. The decline was largely attributed to a pullback from February’s front-loaded output surge. Nevertheless, business confidence weakened to its lowest level since December 2024 amid uncertainty surrounding government policies.
In contrast, the services PMI rose to 54.4 in March, the highest level in 2025. Despite the strong reading, business optimism declined, weighed down by concerns over tariff-related disruptions and federal cost-cutting initiatives. Analysts anticipate that manufacturing will return to contraction in April, with a projected reading of 49.3, while the services index is expected to fall to 52.9.
Big tech earnings in focus
Crucially, this week will also see first-quarter earnings releases from major US technology firms, including Tesla, Microsoft, and Alphabet. These companies, particularly Tesla, have seen their shares come under pressure amid fears that Trump’s tariffs could disrupt supply chains and key international markets.
Analysts expect Tesla’s revenue for the first quarter to grow by 2.6% year-on-year. However, earnings per share are forecast to decline due to factory retools for the new Model Y SUVs and a slowdown in sales due to Elon’s political intervention.
