Is the World Championship really heading for a 'shock' winner?

Three qualifiers have reached the semi-finals of the World Championship for the first time since the tournament was first held at the Crucible in 1977, but anybody who believes the 48th staging of the sport’s biggest tournament is heading for a “shock” winner hasn’t been paying attention.

World No. 12 Kyren Wilson is the only player from the top 16 still competing at the event, but he is far from an outstanding favourite to win the title for the first time amid a quartet of semi-finalists all boasting strong pedigrees in Sheffield.

Wilson’s opponent David Gilbert reached the last four in 2019 – defeating the then defending champion Mark Williams (13-9) and Wilson (13-8) – and was only denied a spot in the final by four-time world champion John Higgins producing a rousing comeback from 11-6 behind in an epic 17-16 win.

Wilson himself enjoyed a run to the final in 2020 defeating Trump 13-9 in the last eight and Anthony McGill 17-16 in the semi-finals before succumbing 18-8 to snooker GOAT Ronnie O’Sullivan in a tournament delayed and hampered by viewing restrictions due to Covid-19 restrictions.

The Kettering man also lost a semi-final 17-13 to Higgins in 2018 and was 10-4 clear of Shaun Murphy in the 2021 semi-finals, but lost 13 of the final 15 frames in a crushing 17-12 defeat.

In the bottom half of the draw, Stuart Bingham is also appearing in his third Crucible semi-final having lifted the title in 2015, a tournament that saw him defeat former world champions Graeme Dott, O’Sullivan, Trump and Murphy on his way to the trophy.

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Having ended Stephen Hendry’s quest for an eighth title in 2000 with a 10-7 win in the first round, Bingham has also reached two quarter-finals at the Crucible and could become the oldest world champion of the modern era on Monday aged 47.

“Everyone will be looking at the draw thinking: ‘This is my chance to be world champion’,” said Bingham after his taut 13-10 win over O’Sullivan on Wednesday. “I can’t take anything for granted and though I’m the only one to have got my hands on that trophy, I don’t know if it’ll count for much.”

Meanwhile, provisional world No. 25 Jak Jones – the lowest ranked figure left in the World Championship having started at 44 – has quickly established a proven record at the event as a no-nonsense match player, having become the first qualifier to reach a quarter-final and semi-final on his first two appearances at the tournament since his fellow Welshman Matthew Stevens reached back-to-back quarter-finals in the late 1990s.

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Jones enjoyed wins over two-time finalist Ali Carter and 2010 world champion Neil Robertson last year and has so far defeated International champion Zhang Anda, last year’s semi-finalist Si Jiahui and 2019 winner Trump this time out.

It has certainly been a surprise to see a host of leading players – including defending champion Luca Brecel, O’Sullivan, Trump, new world No. 1 Mark Allen and Selby – suffer exits long before the business end of the tournament, but that does not mean it has been a tournament full of startling shocks.

A win for Bingham, Gilbert or Jones would see them join Terry Griffiths (1979) and Murphy (2005) as the only qualifiers to go all the way to the title. Yet all four semi-finalists will end the event inside the world’s top 25.

And as the Crucible form guide from recent history illustrates, it would not be a major upset if any of the remaining four players become world champion on bank holiday Monday.