Human-induced climate change is the reason for the rise in frequency and severity of flooding – and there’s more to come, warn scientists.
On 24 January, Ireland was hit with one of the harshest storms in recent years. Storm Éowyn, with record breaking gusts of up to 184kph, caused an estimated €200m in damage and left more than 750,000 in the country without power for days, and even weeks in some cases.
Now, a research team at the University of Galway’s School of Engineering has found that the freak phenomenon generated the highest storm surges ever recorded at some locations in Ireland’s western seaboard and have argued that the region narrowly avoided being inundated with water.
By analysing 47 datasets from by the Irish National Tide Gauge Network and the Office of Public Works, the team were able to better understand the true severity of the storm.
According to the team, Storm Éowyn caused tides to peak at nearly 3m above normal levels at Limerick Docks – the highest surge along the western coastline. While tides rose to 2.6m above normal levels at Galway port – the highest ever recorded at this station since its operations began in 2007. And at Shannon Airport, the tidal gauge recorded a surge of 2.7m.
Although, thankfully, the timing of the tides meant little to no flooding impacts. However, had these surges occurred a week earlier during the high water spring tide, the water levels would have been much higher, the team said, predicting that the water level at Galway Port would have reached 4.96m, Limerick Dock at 5.85m and Shannon Airport at 5.43m above mean sea level – flooding these areas.
Dr Niall Madden, a senior lecturer at the School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences at University of Galway, said that we were “incredibly lucky”.
“The worst of the storm surge coincided with a low and ebbing tide. Had it hit just a few hours earlier, on a full or flooding tide, Galway could have been dealing with a double disaster of record high winds and record high flooding,” he said.
Moreover, the Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station in Co Galway saw the highest 10-minute wind speed of 142kph.
“Extensive research suggest that flooding has increased in frequency and severity in recent decades around the world and this is attributed to climate change,” said Dr Indiana Olbert from the School of Engineering at University of Galway.
“Our analysis of the drivers of flooding in Ireland show that the anthropogenic climate change – that’s the changes related to human activity – will drive more extreme rainfall and generate more intense flooding.
“Such changes are likely to continue with further warming. In future we will witness more extreme weather events that will result in devastating floods,” she added, warning of more coastal flooding in the future.
“The data we have recovered from the hours around Storm Éowyn shows just how narrowly tens of thousands of people avoided tidal inundation and threats to cities, towns and coastal communities.
Previously, the most dangerous recorded storm in Irish history was Hurricane Debbie, a rare tropical cyclone which rocked Ireland in September 1961. It caused 18 deaths in the Republic of Ireland and six deaths in Northern Ireland.
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