Why Indian-American voters matter
There are approximately 5.2 million people of Indian origin residing in the US today, of which 3.9 million are eighteen or older. Based on 2022 data, a report by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Indian voter preferences estimates that there are roughly 2.6 million eligible Indian American voters today. While the Indian diaspora comprises a small share of the overall electorate, several factors account for the heightened attention to this group in this election year. the report says.
Between 2010 and 2020, the Indian American community has grown by 50 percent, making it the second-largest immigrant community by country of origin, trailing only Mexican Americans. Data from the Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggests that 96 percent of registered Indian American voters are likely to vote in this election.
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The report further says, the Indian American community’s elevated socioeconomic status has made it an attractive target for campaigns run by both parties; the median household income for Indian Americans is roughly $153,000, more than double the figure for the country as a whole.
The survey has found Asian Americans may be gradually shifting their allegiance from the Democratic Party, their traditional preference, toward the Republican Party. Indian roots of Harris as well as presence of Usha Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy in the election this time has brought forth the Indian factor.
Indian-American voters in the swing states
Even though over 160 million voters in total are expected to cast their ballots in the US elections, just half a million Indian-American voters in seven swing states too count.In the seven so-called swing states that will decide the presidential contest, some 400,000 Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders have become new potential voters over the past four years via relocation, gaining citizenship or turning 18, Shekar Narasimhan, the national chair of the AAPI Victory Fund, a political action committee that supports Democrats, has told Bloomberg.
As per figures from AAPI Data, a leading research and policy organization producing data on Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander communities, Indian Americans are by far the largest Asian ethnic group in Georgia where they number 177,310. Pennsylvania has the second highest Indian American presence at 166,355, followed by 129,025 in Michigan, 124,397 in North Carolina, 68,957 in Arizona, 37,264 in Wisconsin and 19,828 in Nevada.
Industrialist and founder of the Republican Hindu Coalition, Shalabh Shalli Kumar, who backs Trump, has told ANI. “The race is very, very tight in the battleground states. There’s no question about it. However, when we compare it to 2016, at this point in time, Hillary was five to six points ahead in polls and we say so this time it’s even. Unless something happens in the next 24 hours or 36 hours, President Trump is going to win.”
“The difference here is going to be the Hindu and Indian vote in the battleground states, which is almost a million in seven battleground states when you combine them. Hindu and Indian Americans are going to decide who the next president of the United States will be,” he added.
Indian Americans shifting to Democrats
Historically, Indian-Americans have leaned heavily towards the Democratic Party. However, recent surveys indicate a notable shift in this allegiance. According to the 2024 IAAS survey, only 47% of Indian-Americans now identify as Democrats, a decline from 56% in 2020. This drop suggests a growing discontent with the Democratic Party, particularly among younger voters and men within the community.
The support for Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate and current vice president of Indian descent, is also showing signs of decline. Approximately 61% of Indian-American respondents expressed their intention to vote for Harris, which reflects a decrease of nearly 7 percentage points compared to Joe Biden’s support in 2020.
The 2024 elections have made Indian-American voters a political force to reckon with. They are likely to exert even more influence on American politics as more of them get politically mobilised and realise the value of their vote.
(With inputs from agencies)
