The bank attributes the bullish revision to stronger-than-expected central bank demand and mounting recession risks, which have contributed to a surge in gold-backed ETF inflows. Spot gold has gained over 23% so far in 2025, breaching $3,200/oz for the first time last Friday, continuing its upward rally from last year and setting a string of new record highs.
Goldman now expects central banks to purchase an average of 80 tonnes of gold per month, revising its earlier assumption of 70 tonnes. This pace is significantly above the pre-2022 baseline of 17 tonnes per month, reflecting a sustained shift in monetary reserves strategy amid global macroeconomic uncertainty.
The bank also highlighted rising investor appetite for gold ETFs, citing its economists’ latest assessment that puts the probability of a U.S. recession at 45% over the next 12 months. Recession fears typically drive safe-haven flows into gold, a trend that has already started to reflect in ETF buying patterns.
In its medium-term outlook, Goldman said the risks to their revised forecast are skewed to the upside. Should central bank purchases climb to 100 tonnes/month, the bank estimates gold could rally further to $3,810/oz by end-2025. On the ETF front, if a recession materializes, inflows could return to pandemic-era highs, supporting prices around $3,880/oz by year-end.
However, Goldman also warned of a scenario where stronger-than-expected economic growth, driven by reduced policy uncertainty, could temper the rally. In such a case, gold prices may stabilize near $3,550/oz by the end of the year.In India too, gold prices, though volatile, have been gaining momentum. In the last week alone, gold June futures contracts on MCX hit their new peak twice. The recent all-time high for gold at the time of writing this article stood at Rs 93,940/10 grams.Also read: “The crash has arrived”: Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki doubles down on gold, silver, Bitcoin strategy
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