“Well, gold is going to continue to move higher especially now that the US dollar is moving lower against its fiat counterparts. In fact, I expect pronounced US dollar weakness throughout the rest of this year and for many years to come. So, all of that is going to drive more money out of US dollars and US financial assets like treasuries into gold and other non-US dollar denominated investments.”
When asked what factors would push the dollar lower, Schiff cited a loss of confidence in U.S. fiscal policy and central bank independence. “Well, it is going to be the continued loss of confidence in the fiscal responsibility of the US government and the independence of the Fed. You are going to see ever increasing US federal deficits monetised by the central bank. So, the supply of dollars is going to increase substantially. In the meantime, the world wants to move away from the dollar. The US has weaponised the dollar. First with Biden and now with Trump, the world is not looking kindly at the rhetoric and the tariffs which are making it more difficult to trade with the United States. The world would be better off trading a lot less with the United States and countries that are major exporters should consume more of what they produce rather than subsidise American consumers so that that we could buy it. So, you are going to see a major shift out of dollars. Foreign central banks will continue to move reserves to gold and out of dollars. Global investors will keep pulling money out of US financial markets. And as the dollar goes down, that is going to create an economic boom outside the United States. A lot of dollar denominated debt is going to be basically wiped out and consumers outside the United States are going to find that they have a lot more purchasing power. So, you are going to see, higher living standards abroad and lower living standards in the US.”
Schiff also explained the ongoing diversification of central bank reserves. “Yes, well, in the past, foreign central banks have accumulated dollars, I think that was a mistake. It benefited the United States, but it perpetuated these massive deficits in the United States where the US became dependent on the rest of the world. The US needs the world to produce the goods that it cannot and to loan it the money that it does not save and this was a big subsidy that the US enjoyed, but it was a burden on the global economy and the world is tired of shouldering that burden especially since the world is being lectured by Donald Trump. And so, it is going to be a healthy development to move away from the US dollar as the reserve currency. It is going to be very disruptive initially, but it is going to be a positive development for the world. In the long-long run, it will be positive for the US, but in the short run it is a huge negative.”
When questioned about whether another currency could replace the dollar, Schiff was clear: “No, no, there is not going to be a new currency to replace the dollar. The dollar is going to be replaced by gold. So, gold is going to serve the role that the dollar had been serving as both a reserve asset for central banks and as settlement for bilateral trade. Gold is going to play an increasingly important role in the global monetary system the way it was prior to the US dollar supplanting it.”
Silver, which has also seen substantial gains, is expected to continue rising. Schiff noted, “Yes, silver prices obviously were too low for too long. Gold rose really from 2000 to 4000 without much of an increase in the silver price at all. Then, silver finally caught up and probably got ahead of itself when it shot up to 121. It then pulled back below 70 and right now it is about $80 an ounce. I expect silver prices to trend higher from here, but it may take several months before we get back above the 120 level, but we are going to go above that level and ultimately much higher.”
Looking ahead to 2026, Schiff predicts record highs for both metals. “Yes, but gold got almost to 5600 before pulling back. I think that it will end the year above 6000. We will see how much higher, but I am very confident that the high that we set earlier in January will be taken out probably before the end of the second quarter.” On silver, he added, “Yes, I mean, silver is going to make a new high, but obviously it is further away from its high. It is 50%. It would need a 50% move to get back to its high. Gold only needs a 10% move, so much easier for gold but silver is very volatile, so hard to say, but I do believe that silver will make a new record high maybe by the end of the Q2 or sometime in the third quarter of this year.” Schiff also weighed in on U.S. monetary and fiscal policy, cautioning that it is unsustainable. “We have horrible fiscal policy in the United States and horrible monetary policy which is going to get worse. So, that is why gold is trading above 5,000. That is why the dollar recently hit an all-time record low against the Swiss Franc and why it is continuing to fall now against a basket of other fiat currencies is because of the monetary and fiscal policy that we have been pursuing in the past and that we continue to recklessly pursue in the present.”
Finally, on the sustainability of U.S. debt, Schiff warned, “No, it is not sustainable. It has not been sustainable for a while. It is completely unsustainable, that is why people should be selling US treasuries, that is why China just advised banks to sell treasuries. Japan is going to be a major seller of treasuries. The whole world is going to be selling treasuries because the debt is unsustainable. It cannot be repaid. It cannot even be serviced. So, it is going to be either default or inflation and obviously politically expedient choice is inflation and that is the direction that we are headed and it is pretty obvious. So, our creditors want to get out. They do not want to watch the value of their US dollar holdings inflated away. It is better to just sell now and move the money into something else.”
With both gold and silver poised for further gains, investors and central banks alike are closely monitoring the U.S. dollar, while Schiff’s forecasts highlight a potential shift in the global monetary system back toward precious metals.
