The price of Bitcoin ended the past year in the red despite reaching multiple all-time highs above the six-figure valuation mark. While the market leader has made a solid start to 2026, concerns are still swirling around about BTC’s prospects over the coming months, especially in relation to the four-year cycle theory.
Why $65,000 Could Be Crucial In This Cycle
In a recent post on the X platform, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, weighed in on the current structure of the Bitcoin price. The market expert said that the premier cryptocurrency has taken a breather in the past few months and lagged compared to other assets, like gold, in 2025.
Timmer revealed that Bitcoin is drifting away from the historically steep power law trajectory and instead following the internet S-curve. This structure shift also opened the door to the ongoing conversation about Bitcoin’s typical cyclical behavior.
According to several pundits, the traditional Bitcoin four-year halving-driven cycle is now dead, and a new structural upward wave seems to be taking root in the market. Proponents of “Bitcoin four-year cycle is dead” often state institutional adoption and spot exchange-traded funds as evidence of the new bullish market structure.
While Timmer agrees that the relevance of the BTC halving event is decreasing, the Fidelity Director of Global Macro rejected the idea that the premier cryptocurrency would no longer see bear markets. “I’m skeptical, not about the waning power of the halving cycle (with which I agree), but the idea that bear markets are no longer going to happen,” Timmer said.
Speaking from a technical point of view, Timmer identified $65,000 — around the previous cycle high — as a crucial level for the price of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the next most important level lies around $45,000, the power law trendline.
Source: @TimmerFidelity on X
For context, the power law is a mathematical model that suggests that Bitcoin’s growth follows a predictable and consistent trajectory. This metric, often used to identify key levels in price analysis, shows the correlation between the value of BTC and time.
Timmer noted that while the power law trendline is far from the current price of BTC, it could move to $65,000 if the flagship cryptocurrency enters a prolonged consolidation phase for the next year. This could make the $65,000 level an even more important zone for the Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $90,520, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured from DALL.E, chart from TradingView
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