Kyiv has charted a course for the next few months on the battlefield which sources say is ‘heavily offensive’ and requires major commitment from NATO allies – particularly US President Biden.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s self-described ‘victory plan’ is heavily offensive, with some experts doubting he’ll persuade Western partners to buy into it.
His central demands include the ability to use western weapons inside Russia, as well as military support to maintain territory inside Russia’s Kursk region. His plan is to use this land as a “bargaining chip” for future territorial negotiations with Russia.
Experts are skeptical that the Kremlin is willing to negotiate on genuine terms any time soon.
“I think we’re very, very far from any kind of negotiations for the simple reason that Russia is as aggressive, if not more now than it was at the beginning of the war”, Professor in Cold War history, Michael Kimmage told Euronews.
“Russia is not moderating. It’s pushing ahead in the Donbass. Putin announced increased levels of mobilisation of Russian troops just a couple of days ago”, he said.
Despite several months of lobbying, Zelenskyy failed to make the case for using western weapons into Russian territory.
“There are points that depend precisely on the positive will and support of the United States”, Zelenskyy told journalists in Kyiv ahead of his trip to meet with US President Biden this week.
“I very much hope that he will support this plan, designed for quick decisions of our partners” he said.
However, it’s been made clear to Kyiv that allowing strikes inside Russia is too provocative; and too risky for mistakes to be made. Putin has also made it clear he’d regard this as a serious escalation.
“I think it’s unlikely that Biden will agree”. “Biden has never been particularly unclear in terms of the limits of aid provided to Ukraine”, said Kimmage.
“I think some of the limits imposed are probably just going to just going to stay. And I think Zelenskyy is probably well aware of what these limits are and how difficult and how slow it is to move Biden”, he said.
“But from a negotiating standpoint, maybe if you exert a lot of pressure, you get not everything that you ask for, but you get a bit and it may really be a negotiation about what that bit is because I don’t think that’s the landscape and come to Washington and leave empty handed”, he said.
It’s understood the urgency for the offensive is ahead of a potential change in the White House moving from the Democrats to a Trump-Vance administration which would likely show far less sympathy to the Ukrainian plight.
“The plan is designed for decisions that will have to occur from October to December, and not to delay these processes’” said Zelenskyy.
According to sources familiar with the plan – which will be revealed to the White House on Wednesday, Kyiv will also describe it as a “bridge” to a second peace summit with the potential of inviting Russia by the end of the year.
President Zelenskyy will also share it with US Congress and to both Presidential candidates – Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
