Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Eurosceptic billionaire Andrej Babiš and his ANO party are on course to win power in the Czech Republic in a result that threatens to undermine western support for Ukraine.
With 97 per cent per cent the votes counted, ANO led with 35 per cent, ahead of the centre-right Spolu alliance of Prime Minister Petr Fiala, which had attracted 23 per cent of the vote, the national election commission said.
To reclaim the premiership he lost in 2021, Babiš will probably have to rely on coalition partners. Under Czech law, only parties that win at least 5 per cent of the votes can enter parliament, and it remained unclear which — and how many — smaller parties would pass that threshold.
The return of the businessman-turned-politician risks complicating western support for Ukraine, particularly as ANO has warned that it would withdraw from a Prague-led initiative supplying ammunition to Kyiv.
During the campaign, Fiala framed the election as a choice between keeping the Czech Republic firmly anchored in the EU and Nato, or allowing ANO to align the country more closely with pro-Russia governments in Hungary and Slovakia.
Last year, ANO co-founded a European parliamentary group alongside Hungary’s Fidesz party, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The bloc also includes France’s Rassemblement National and Austria’s Freedom Party, both far-right formations with a history of pro-Russian sympathies.
Babiš has strongly denied being pro-Moscow, insisting he has never met President Vladimir Putin, unlike Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, both of whom have visited the Kremlin since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“Babiš is not an extremist but a dealmaker and populist who wants to have a catch-all party and he believes that he can offer something to everybody,” said Petr Kolář, a former Czech ambassador to Russia, before the vote.
“I don’t think Babiš will be against [more] sanctions” on Russia, he added. “I believe that Babiš is inspired by Orbán, he admires him, but he doesn’t want to be perceived as a troublemaker in Brussels so much.”
Emulating President Donald Trump’s campaign tactics in the US, Babiš ran on an anti-migration platform, selling red baseball caps emblazoned with “Strong Czechia”. He also used his wealth and business record to claim he could clean up the Czech political swamp.
However, a victory for Babiš would again draw attention to his conflicts of interest over Agrofert, his agricultural and chemicals conglomerate. Since leaving office, he has faced court cases over allegations of fraudulent EU subsidy payments linked to the group dating back to 2015.
Coalition talks could also be influenced by President Petr Pavel, who will nominate the next prime minister. A former Nato commander, Pavel has worked closely with Fiala’s government to back Ukraine and counter alleged Russian disinformation campaigns.
This week, Pavel urged citizens to elect “a government that will defend our sovereignty in the community of democratic countries and not leave us at the mercy of Russia”.
