The European Union’s population will shrink by one-third by the end of the century without migration, losing the equivalent of 1 million workers annually in the next 25 years as Italy and Spain face looming population collapse, latest data shows.
According to Eurostat’s official projections, the EU’s population will shrink by around 9% by 2050 compared with 2025 if migration ceases entirely. The decline is forecast to continue in the following decades, reaching 23% by 2075 and 34% by 2100.
Labour shortages are a key aspect of demographic change. According to Peter Bosch, senior research associate at the Egmont Institute, the EU is expected to lose around 1 million workers each year until 2050.
If labour participation rates by age and sex remain at the average levels observed between 2011 and 2022, the labour force is projected to shrink by 20.2% by 2070. That is equivalent to around 42.8 million fewer workers, according to a reportby the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC). In less favourable scenarios, the decline could be even steeper, reaching 26.7% or 55.9 million people.
JRC researchers emphasise that “migration can play a crucial role in shaping the EU’s labour market over the coming decades, particularly if migrants are successfully employed and integrated into the workforce.”
Several studies have explored how possible EU enlargement could help address projected labour shortages. The European Commission notesthat the historic 2004 enlargement known as the “Big Bang” brought significant benefits and strong economic growth to both the new member states and the EU as a whole.
So, how is Europe’s population expected to change by 2050 and 2100? Which countries will see the steepest declines? And how does the median age compare between EU member states and candidate countries?
Eurostat projections show clearly that EU member states are set to experience a steep population decline in the decades leading up to 2100.
If there are 100 people in the EU in 2025, that number would fall to 91 by 2050, 77 by 2075, and just 66 by 2100, if there is no migration. In other words, one in three people would disappear over the next 75 years.
Italy and Spain to lose half their population by 2100
According to Eurostat, if there is no migration, Italy and Spain are projected to lose around half of their populations by 2100. Italy’s population is expected to fall by 52%, and Spain’s by 49%, compared with 2025 levels.
Several other countries are also forecast to see declines of over 40%, including Malta (48%), Portugal (44%), Greece (44%), and Croatia (40%).
Among EU member states, France and Ireland are expected to be the least affected by population decline, according to Eurostat projections. France’s population is forecast to fall by just 13%, and Ireland’s by 15%, by 2100.
In fact, Ireland is set to be the only EU country whose population is projected to grow by 2050, with an increase of around 4% compared with 2025 levels.
How does the EU compare in age to candidate countries?
In general, EU candidate countries have younger populations than the Union average, except for Serbia and Ukraine. According to Eurostat, in 2024, 30.8% of the EU population was aged 0–29. Only Serbia (30.1%) and Ukraine (30.4%) exceeded this share.
The other seven candidate countries have significantly younger populations, with the proportion of youth exceeding 40% in Turkey (44.3%) and Kosovo (48.3%).
Turkey stands out with a population of over 85 million in 2024, despite its EU accession talks currently being stalled.
Since ageing is also a reality in candidate countries, and most have relatively small populations aside from Turkey, the impact of potential EU enlargement remains uncertain.
A recent Carnegie Endowment report by Stefan Lehne and colleagues noted that “the candidate countries, like much of central and eastern Europe, face population decline and labour shortages,” as well.
According to the JRC report, A Demographic Perspective on the Future of European Labour Force Participation, migration can boost the size of the future working-age population.
Enlargement alone may not fully reverse Europe’s demographic decline, but it could provide the momentum the EU needs to address it.
The European Commission cites the historic 2004 ‘Big Bang’ enlargement as a success story: “Over the past 20 years, both the EU and the newly joined countries have experienced growth and prosperity,” the Commission stated.
ECB experts: Foreign workers could help
A recent analysis by European Central Bank (ECB) experts also emphasised that foreign workers are playing an increasingly important role in euro area labour markets.
They noted that the region’s ageing population poses serious challenges to labour force expansion and, consequently, to economic growth.
“As our data shows, foreign workers could help to address and overcome these challenges. The influx of foreign workers in recent years has supported robust growth in the euro area labour force, somewhat offsetting negative demographic trends,” the ECB experts said.
