The European Commission is preparing for a possible no-deal scenario in negotiations over a future free trade agreement with Ukraine as time is slipping away with the existing scheme set to expire on 5 June.
“There are time constraints, therefore we are also exploring potential transitional measures in case the negotiations for reviewing the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) are not finalised and applied by 6 June,” a Commission spokesperson said on Wednesday.
The spokesperson added that these potential measures are now also being discussed with Ukrainian counterparts.
“I’m not saying transitional measures will definitely be needed,” he continued. “What I am saying is that we are preparing for that possibility, which I believe everyone agrees is what a responsible European Commission should do.”
Currently, trade between the EU and Ukraine operates under the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs), which temporarily suspend all tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural exports. This system was introduced in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The ATM scheme, which has already been extended once, is due to expire in June and cannot be renewed again. The Commission has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of extending the ATMs beyond that date anyway.
The existing arrangement has faced pushback in some EU member states, particularly France and Poland, where farmers have protested against the influx of Ukrainian agricultural imports since trade barriers were lifted.
A formal free trade agreement is therefore needed to replace the current system. “Our priority is to work on the review of the EU-Ukraine DCFTA,” the spokesperson said.
However, agriculture remains the most sensitive issue. The EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen, recently emphasised that future trade arrangements will not include the same level of quotas and imports allowed under the ATMs.
By contrast, Ukraine hopes to maintain the current level of access. “We would like to begin negotiations with our partners in the European Commission to preserve the existing level of cooperation and enshrine it in the new agreement,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said during a visit to Brussels last month.
The EU’s goal is to provide long-term predictability and stability for operators in both the EU and Ukraine, the Commission spokesperson said.
“This will strengthen the perspective for Ukraine’s gradual movement towards EU accession, as well as addressing sensitivities on our side, notably on the agri-food sector,” he said.
Still, the EU is in no rush. “Things are ready when they’re ready,” the spokesperson said, highlighting that the Commission must consult with member states and pointing out that a change in leadership at the Commission has also affected the timeline.
“These things can’t always move as quickly as we might like,” he concluded.
