- Weekly RSI falls below 30, indicating oversold conditions.
- Historically, similar conditions preceded 200%+ rebounds.
- ETH could rise towards $6,500–$7,000 if the reversal is confirmed.
Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, has fallen more than 5%.
As the digital asset struggles to hold above $2,000, analysts are focusing on a combination of technical signals and on-chain data to determine whether the current price action signals a broader trend reversal.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Ethereum is now testing the same levels it bounced from recently, which also correspond with its all-time high from 2018, suggesting a potential market bottom could be forming.
Ethereum hits the realised price level
One of the more significant developments is that Ethereum has slipped below its realised price of $2,000 — a metric that calculates the average price at which all ETH in circulation last moved.
Historically, this level has acted as a rare and powerful signal for long-term investors. The last time Ethereum traded below its realised price was in March 2020.
With ETH now back below this line, some historical parallels are being drawn.
Back in 2020, Ethereum went on to stage a massive recovery that eventually led to its all-time high above $4,800 in November 2021.
The return of this condition raises the probability of a similar upward move in the coming months, according to long-term trend indicators.
RSI drops below key threshold
Technical analysis shows that the weekly relative strength index (RSI) — a momentum oscillator used to assess overbought or oversold conditions — has dropped below 30, a level not seen since the bear market bottoms of 2018 and 2022.
Such low RSI readings have historically marked generational buying zones for Ethereum.
This drop in RSI aligns with ETH’s current price testing its 2018 high, a support level it has not touched since March 2023.
These conditions suggest the selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, which could set the stage for a reversal.
Notably, previous periods of such low RSI levels coincided with the start of extended bull markets.
Network activity slows post-merge
Despite these bullish long-term signals, Ethereum’s short-term fundamentals paint a more cautious picture.
A decline in daily active addresses, a drop in transaction fees burnt, and an increase in supply following the Merge have all indicated weaker on-chain activity.
This combination reflects waning short-term interest among users and traders.
However, historical analysis shows that such phases of reduced activity often precede sharp price recoveries.
In earlier cycles, dips of similar magnitude have resulted in average price gains exceeding 200% in the following months.
For this reason, some investors are watching closely, considering the current price region to be a potential accumulation zone.
Indicators suggest bottom near
The current convergence of technical and on-chain data points toward Ethereum approaching the end of its current downtrend.
Price touching the 2018 high, RSI dropping below 30, and falling below the realised price of $2,000 are all rare events that tend to occur near major market turning points.
While Ethereum continues to face pressure in the short term due to muted network activity, long-term signals suggest that the asset may be near a bottom.
If past patterns repeat, Ethereum could see a substantial recovery from here, potentially climbing towards the $6,500 to $7,000 range over the next cycle.
As of now, Ethereum remains a key focus for both retail and institutional market participants, who are monitoring for confirmation of trend reversal indicators before making significant moves.
