‘We are closer to peace than we think. We are closer to the end of the war,’ President Volodymyr Zelensky confidently announced to the World via ABC News during his visit to the US capital. But how realistic is this hope?
Trump is pledging to pull out of giving aid to Ukraine if he wins the US election in November, while also claiming he could ‘negotiate a peace deal’. This depends on both whether he wins and whether the US Congress is with him.
If the US did happen to review its financial aid to Ukraine, European nations, including the UK, who have been hesitant over directly supplying missiles to Zelensky’s forces, might back down completely in losing their historical backup.
Ukraine & Russia forces facing another harsh winder
In any case, both Ukraine and the military forces of Russia face another harsh winter on the eastern flank of Ukraine, where Putin’s military currently holds one-fifth of Ukrainian territory. And in western Russia, the winter is a daunting prospect with bombardments from strategic Ukrainian drone attacks.
One is reminded of GW Bush’s bungling ‘fool me once’ speech when attempting to take Donald Trump’s pledges seriously. If he is lined up to be the 48th president, and such a situation in the history of US politics is not unheard of, a military leader, such as Zelensky, announcing to the world he has a plan for victory while in the thick of a bitter war, is unheard of.
Election candidates garner favour for Ukraine action
Zelensky may be vying for continued financial support from the US with a ‘victory is in sight’ pitch to make to a Biden administration looking at a possible defeat in November. Or he may even use the same pitch to an incoming Trump administration eager to purchase a heroic ‘we did it’ position on entering power. Or, if a continued Democratic Party of Kamala Harris administration wins power, then they could do so by taking action that halts Russian aggression, and therefore garner favour for the Democrats at the polls.
Whatever the outcome of Zelensky’s visit to Washington, he seems to be betting on November’s US elections as being key to stopping the war.
What is not considered in this maelstrom of speculation is Russia. If there were to be a ceasefire, would it just lead to a regrouping and rearming of Putin’s forces ready for Spring 2025?
