- Bitwise projects Bitcoin to deliver 28% annual returns over the next decade.
- Institutions now view Bitcoin like equities and bonds for portfolio allocation.
- Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries fuel Bitcoin’s growing long-term adoption.
Bitwise Asset Management expects bitcoin to deliver the strongest returns of any major asset class over the next ten years, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 28% with gradually declining volatility.
The forecast was shared in a new memo previewing the firm’s forthcoming Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report.
Institutional demand spurs framework
The report, authored by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, is targeted at large platforms and professional allocators that are increasingly treating bitcoin as a “core” portfolio consideration.
Hougan notes that the shift follows the launch and widespread approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have opened the asset class to mainstream retirement accounts and wealth platforms.
Interest in long-term planning has grown markedly.
Hougan said Bitwise received a dozen requests this year for long-term assumptions around bitcoin, compared with none between 2017 and 2024.
In his view, this marks an inflection point: institutions are now evaluating bitcoin in the same way they assess equities, bonds, and other traditional assets.
Favourable comparisons with traditional markets
While the full report is yet to be published, the preview states that bitcoin’s projected returns, volatility profile, and correlations compare favourably with established asset classes.
Bitwise characterises bitcoin’s correlations with other major assets as “low”, falling between −0.5 and 0.5, which many allocators value for diversification benefits.
The asset manager’s positioning of bitcoin’s outlook draws parallels with annual capital-market forecasts issued by large Wall Street firms such as JPMorgan, PIMCO, BlackRock, and Vanguard.
These outlooks help institutions determine long-term strategic allocations across asset classes including equities, fixed income, real estate, and alternatives.
Hougan argues that similar guidance is now warranted for digital assets, given their growing maturity and integration into mainstream investment products.
Growing Onchain and corporate holdings
Since spot bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, they have quickly gained traction.
On-chain holdings tied to these ETFs have grown to represent almost 7% of bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply, with assets under management exceeding $146 billion, according to data from The Block.
Corporate treasuries have also expanded their exposure.
Publicly traded companies, led by MicroStrategy with a holding of 629,376 BTC, have collectively accumulated more than $80 billion worth of bitcoin.
These acquisitions have been financed largely through capital market activities, including equity offerings and convertible debt issuance.
Bitwise’s full Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report is expected later this week.
It will provide detailed methodology and quantitative analysis, alongside side-by-side comparisons with forecasts for traditional asset classes from leading global asset managers.
For Bitwise, the release marks a bid to position bitcoin within the same framework used for decades to evaluate traditional investments.
For institutions, it reflects a growing acceptance of bitcoin not as a speculative play, but as a serious allocation option with defined risk and return expectations.
