Current market conditions will make it difficult for Bitcoin to replicate its early 2025 price gains going into 2026, says 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder.
“It’s unlikely that the factors driving the current volatility will fully resolve in the short term,” Snyder told Cointelegraph.“A repeat performance next January will depend heavily on broader market sentiment.”
Snyder explained that January often sees “renewed inflows” into Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds as investors rebalance and reposition portfolios at the start of the year.
Downtrend isn’t “anything crypto specific”
Snyder said it is unclear how Bitcoin will perform in January, given the current low level of positive market sentiment.
Bitcoin reached a then-peak of $109,000 on Jan. 9, just one day before Donald Trump was set to be inaugurated, as traders bet his proposed plans for the crypto sector would spark a rally.
Bitcoin climbed to its current high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, but it soon entered a downtrend, following the $19 billion crypto market liquidation event on Oct. 10.
The event prompted many market participants to adopt a cautious short-term price outlook after initially holding more optimistic year-end price expectations.
Bitcoin is trading at $92,150 at the time of publication, down almost 10% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
However, the current environment has Snyder feeling more optimistic about the long term.
“I am feeling more bullish as I see this most recent correction as a response to a general risk-off sentiment to broader market conditions, rather than anything crypto specific,” she said.
Catalysts ahead for upside and downside
Snyder said that several factors could push Bitcoin to further outperform, including the expansion of crypto ETFs on major platforms, increased government adoption and rising demand for stores of value beyond gold.
Related: Strategy won’t be forced to sell Bitcoin if stock drops, Bitwise CIO says
She said potential catalysts that could see Bitcoin underperform include risk-off sentiment across broader financial markets and continued strength in gold, which could make Bitcoin less appealing to traditional investors.
However, other industry executives are more optimistic about history repeating itself.
BitMine chair Tom Lee recently said that Bitcoin will reach a new high before the end of January 2026.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a return of 3.81% during the month of January, according to CoinGlass.
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