Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) experienced another recovery on Monday amid a challenging market environment for BTC and broader digital assets.
Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs drew about $562 million of inflows, breaking a four-day outflow streak. $1.5 billion of outflows were recorded last week, according to SoSoValue data.
Despite the uptick, analysts cautioned that ETFs and broader markets are likely to face continued pressure from institutional selling and macro uncertainty, with near-term support potentially sticking around ETF cost basis levels of $84,000.
The inflows came as Bitcoin rebounded on Monday after briefly dipping below $75,000 over the weekend, surging to an intraday high above $79,000, according to CoinGecko.
Bitcoin ETFs at $1 billion outflows year-to-date
The fresh $562 million of inflows account for a notable portion of year-to-date outflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs, which stood at $1 billion as of Tuesday.
So far this year, total outflows have reached $4.6 billion, offsetting $3.6 billion of inflows, according to SoSoValue data.
In contrast, Ether (ETH) ETFs did not manage to reach any inflows on Monday, posting minor outflows of $2.9 million.
ETF flow cost basis now underwater, says Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn
In addition to the outflows, Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the ETF flow cost basis, Galaxy Digital’s head of research Alex Thorn said in a market update on X on Monday.
“BTC is currently trading 7.3% lower than the average ETF create cost basis ($84k), though it traded as low as 10% below that level on Saturday, Jan. 31,” Thorn noted, adding:
“BTC hasn’t traded below the average ETF create cost basis since summer and early fall 2024, when it reached as low as -9.9%. It’s reasonable to expect this level to serve as near-term support.”
Thorn also pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price of $56,000, noting that BTC has historically found support “around or slightly below” that level before a bull market.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said the market faces unfavorable capital flows, Bitcoin’s decoupling from global money supply trends, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over US monetary policy amid Kevin Warsh’s designation as Federal Reserve Chair.
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“In the long term, however, the outlook remains constructive, as structural concerns about currency depreciation persist and the current lag behind liquidity trends signals potential for catch-up,” Butterfill added.
On Monday, CoinShares reported that crypto exchange-traded products shed another $1.7 billion last week, doubling outflows from the previous week.
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