Bitcoin bears at risk of $600M liquidation, raising chance for rally to $70K

Key takeaways:

• A minor 4.3% Bitcoin price increase to $69,600 could trigger over $600 million in forced liquidations for bearish traders.

• Rising network hashrate and the BIP-360 quantum security proposal are helping to diminish long-term technical concerns.

Bitcoin (BTC) has remained confined within a relatively tight range of $65,900 to $70,500 over the past week. This stagnation has encouraged bearish traders, particularly as other major asset classes displayed resilience. However, even if Bitcoin requires months to reclaim the $90,000 level, excessive bearish confidence could trigger a wave of forced liquidations in futures positions, rapidly shifting momentum back to the bulls.

According to CoinGlass estimates, a price rally to $69,600 would force the liquidation of over $600 million in short BTC futures. For context, when Bitcoin climbed to $70,560 from $60,200 on Feb. 6, short liquidations totaled $385 million. Currently, a mere 4.3% move upward from the $66,700 level could deliver an even more significant blow to those betting on further declines.

Bulls may also find a catalyst in weakening macroeconomic data. The US reported sluggish gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter of 2025, with an annualized rate of 1.4% falling short of the 2.9% analysts expected, per Yahoo Finance. This slower economic activity negatively impacts corporate earnings outlooks, typically reducing investor appetite for stock market exposure.

Meanwhile, underlying US inflation rose more than anticipated in December, dampening hopes for near-term interest rate cuts. The US personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4% month on month. As the S&P 500 loses bullish steam, investors may be forced out of their comfort zones to seek higher returns in onchain markets.

Escalating Middle East tensions may prompt investors to seek alternative hedges, particularly after gold prices rallied 25% in just three months. Gold’s market capitalization has climbed to a staggering $35.2 trillion, nearly eight times larger than Nvidia (NVDA US), which sits at $4.6 trillion. 

As Bitcoin trades about 47% below its all-time high, the risk-reward profile for the cryptocurrency may become increasingly attractive to macro traders. For now, Bitcoin bears retain control, as evidenced by the lack of demand for long positions in the futures market.

The BTC perpetual futures funding rate has failed to stay above the 6% neutral threshold over the last two weeks. More telling is the recent stretch of negative funding rate, suggesting that bears are committed to their positions even as Bitcoin retests the $66,000 support level. Regaining conviction remains a hurdle for the bulls, who witnessed $1.6 billion in liquidations during the three-day crash that started on Feb. 6.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs shed $166M as BTC heads for worst start in years

Recovering hashrate and BIP-360 progress strengthen Bitcoin network security

While some of Bitcoin’s recent weakness was attributed to network security concerns, those risks are now dissipating.

The seven-day average hashrate has recovered to 1,100 exahashes per second, matching levels from late January. Earlier fears that miners were abandoning the network to pivot toward the artificial intelligence sector have proven premature, as the industry shows remarkable resilience.

Furthermore, the introduction of BIP-360 has addressed much of the uncertainty surrounding quantum computing threats. This proposal outlines a framework for post-quantum protection through a backwards-compatible soft fork. By removing the vulnerable key-path spend found in Taproot, the proposal hides public keys onchain until the moment of spending. 

This technological roadmap provides a clear path for bulls to regain the narrative, potentially forcing a short squeeze that could propel Bitcoin back above $70,000.