Authorities in Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan have been cautious in their initial assessments of the plane crash near Aktau but local media have been less hesitant.
Exclusive information obtained by Euronews from Azerbaijani government sources has shed new light on the tragic crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight on Christmas Day, stirring considerable debate.
The sources confirmed that an initial investigation has shown that the crash may have been caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile, which was reportedly fired during a drone activity incident above Grozny, the intended destination for the flight from Baku. The missile’s fragments are said to have struck the aircraft, causing severe damage.
The sources added that pilots are believed to have requested an emergency landing, but were denied permission to land at any Russian airports. As a result, they were directed over the Caspian Sea, heading towards Aktau in Kazakhstan. The plane’s navigation system was reportedly switched off throughout its flight over the sea.
Preliminary reports on the number of survivors and fatalities have varied. While sources suggest between 28 and 32 survivors, at least 38 passengers are confirmed dead, with the majority of survivors seated in the tail section of the aircraft.
What were the initial interpretations of the disaster, however, which were put forward by media and officials in the three countries concerned – Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan?
The Kremlin has dismissed claims regarding the cause of the crash as speculative, urging the public to await the conclusion of an official investigation.
Dmitry Peskov, the Russian presidential spokesman, stated: “Any aviation incident must be investigated by specialised authorities. It would be premature to entertain any hypotheses before the investigation is completed. We must first allow the relevant bodies to conduct their investigation.”
Meanwhile, Russia’s aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, along with Azerbaijan Airlines, suggested that the crash was caused by a bird strike. The plane had allegedly been diverted from Grozny to Makhachkala due to fog, before being rerouted to Aktau due to to an emergency.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has stated that the cause of the crash remains unknown, with various theories being possible. According to information provided to the president, the aircraft changed its course towards Aktau due to adverse weather conditions.
Following the report by Euronews, two Azerbaijani media outlets confirmed that they have received the same information from government sources, suggesting the crash may be linked to a Russian missile.
AnewZ reported that the aircraft was attacked by a Russian Pantsir-S air defence system and described the incident as “unintentional”, but also noted that Baku expects Russia to acknowledge the missile strike and conduct a full investigation, bringing justice to those responsible.
Similarly, Caliber.az also referenced sources within Azerbaijan’s Cabinet of Ministers, reporting the involvement of Russian air defence systems in the incident.
And Kazakhstan is in contact with Azerbaijan over the investigation into the crash but has yet to receive any official explanation from either Azerbaijan or Russia.
Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev, who is overseeing the investigation, explained: “We remain in constant contact with Azerbaijan, but as of now, no official version has been provided by either Azerbaijan or Russia. We therefore cannot refute any theories at this stage.”
Local media outlet Orda.kz reported that according to the Mangistau regional health department, an oxygen cylinder exploded on the aircraft after it collided with birds, causing people on board to lose consciousness.
The same outlet also drew attention to “shelling marks” on the surviving parts of the fuselage which were visible in photos after the crash. However, Kazakh authorities have referred to this version of events as speculation, urging the public to wait for the official investigation to be concluded.
