Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained about 0.5% as the new week began, after the underlying gauges gained Friday to close out a turbulent stretch marked by a selloff in riskier corners of the market. Bitcoin edged lower Monday, giving up some of the gains from a rally during the weekend. Shares in Australia and South Korea also opened higher, while Japan is closed for a holiday.
Oil extended its slump after the biggest weekly loss since early October, as traders weighed the prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal that could increase crude flows into an already well-supplied market.
Risk sentiment improved on Wall Street amid reports US officials were having early talks on whether to let Nvidia sell its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. The market also got an injection of hope after Fed Bank of New York President John Williams suggested a near-term rate cut remains a possibility.
“Expect Asian markets to start on the front foot,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets. “But given the moves that we saw last week, and the potential for more volatility in the coming days, investors will be understandably hesitant to throw the kitchen sink on positive risk sentiment.”
Markets saw a resurgence in volatility last week as doubts over the Fed’s ability to cut rates unsettled investors. Assets favored by retail momentum traders — including cryptocurrencies and AI-related stocks — swung sharply, while a selloff in Asian tech shares drove the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to its steepest weekly drop since April.Wall Street wrapped up a chaotic week with a turnaround in stocks after a selloff that whipsawed some of the most-speculative corners of the market, testing investors’ nerves after a torrid rally.US debt climbed on Friday after Williams, seen as a close ally to Chair Jerome Powell, said he sees room to ease policy in the near term, as downside risks to employment have increased while upside risks to inflation have eased. While traders boosted bets on a December cut, officials remained split on whether to lower rates, with Boston Fed chief Susan Collins indicating her mind isn’t made up about a policy move.
Elsewhere, the euro and pound were steady as fiscal pressures in Europe also take focus. France’s National Assembly rejected part of the 2026 budget in the early hours of Saturday morning, highlighting the uncertainties surrounding Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s approach to tackling the bloated deficit.
The UK government at the weekend said it would freeze rail fares in the budget due Wednesday. It’s one of several affordability measures expected as Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves seeks to offset the political pain of having to raise as much as £25 billion ($33 billion) in tax hikes and spending restraint to stabilize the UK’s public finances.
“The spending cuts and revenue-raising measures must be judged by the market to be credible,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategists led by Joseph Capurso wrote in a note to clients. “The risk is the budget will be judged unfavorably, raising UK government bond yields and weighing on GBP/USD.”
In other geopolitical news, the China-Japan spat continued with China writing a letter to the UN. Also, Japan’s defense minister, visiting a military base close to Taiwan, said plans to deploy missiles to the post were on track as tensions smolder between Tokyo and Beijing over the East Asian island.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump’s proposed Nov. 27 deadline to secure Ukraine’s support for a US-backed peace plan isn’t set in stone and could drift into the following week. Rubio’s note of caution followed US-Ukrainian talks Sunday in Geneva that both sides described as making progress toward a deal.
