Melissa Rohlin
FOX Sports NBA Writer
The results for the NBA awards will be trickling in soon, so it’s time for a highlight reel of my picks, as well as my playoff predictions.
It’s always an honor to be among the media members selected to vote for the awards, even though my eyes have glazed over watching games and analyzing stats, and I’ve definitely lost sleep pondering some very tough decisions.
But alas, the ballot has been filled out. The playoffs are beginning. And here’s how I think everything should go down.
MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
This year, the best player on the best team deserves the award. Gilgeous-Alexander led the youngest team in the NBA to a 68-win season, averaging a league-leading 32.7 points a game on an extremely efficient 51.9 percent shooting. He had the most 20, 30, 40 and 50-point games of anyone in the league. Not to mention, he had the lowest turnover percentage of anyone with his usage rate or higher for the last 20 seasons.
But what really pushed him over the edge for this award was his phenomenal two-way play. He was one of the top defenders on the top-rated defensive team in the league. He not only led the NBA in win shares, but also in defensive wins shares, ranking top-five in steals.
While his competition for the award, Nikola Jokic, also put up astounding numbers on the offensive end, Gilgeous-Alexander’s play on both ends of the court gave him the advantage in a very close two-horse race.
Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green
When Victor Wembanyama’s season came to an unexpected end because of a deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder in February, this award became up for grabs. Green has distinguished himself from his competitors. The best argument for Green to win Defensive Player of the Year? Watch him play. He can guard one-through-five, he reads the court better than anyone and his genius lies in stopping plays before they even happen, a phenomenon that doesn’t show up in box scores. Look at what he did against Zion Williamson and Giannis Antetokounmpo this season, for reference.
After the All-Star break, the Warriors were the top-rated defensive team in the league. (They finished seventh overall.) And even though the stats only tell part of the story when it comes to Green, he shined in advanced metrics, coming in No. 1 in the league for defensive LEBRON,
Coach of the Year: Kenny Atkinson
Under Atkinson, the Cavaliers didn’t just surpass their expectations, they shattered them. They went from being thought of as a team that should make the playoffs, to becoming a team that not only clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but is also considered a shoo-in to reach the Eastern Conference Finals.
Atkinson rejiggered the Cavaliers’ offense, emphasizing ball movement and 3-point shooting, while also taking some of the load off of All-Star Donovan Mitchell. The Cavaliers opened the season with a 15-0 record and haven’t lost much steam since, finishing with the top-rated offense in the league, a huge leap from their 16th-place finish last year.
Rookie of the Year: Stephon Castle
Castle averaged 14.7 points on 42.8 percent shooting, 4.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds in 26.7 minutes over 81 games this season. He led all eligible rookies in scoring and was named MVP of the Rising Stars game over All Star weekend, as well as finishing second in the slam dunk contest. Castle is one of four rookies to have multiple 30-point games this season. The field for this award wasn’t strong this season, and Castle did just enough to separate himself.
Finals: Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers
In the East, the reigning champion Celtics are going to advance, with the duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown ultimately getting the best of the Cavaliers. Despite the Cavs’ incredible season, they don’t have enough experience playing together in high-stakes games to get past a duo that has played together for eight seasons, reaching the Conference Finals six times and the championship round twice.
In the West, the Lakers are going to make the Finals because a certain 40-year-old named LeBron James knows that this is one of his final opportunities to win his fifth championship, and he now truly believes he has a chance to make it happen alongside Luka Doncic. James knows how to go all the way, winning four championships and making 10 Finals appearances, including eight in a row from 2011-2018. Doncic, meanwhile, took the Dallas Mavericks to the Finals last year, before they shocked the world by dealing a 25-year-old in his prime to one of their rivals in February. James and Doncic take their games to another level come playoff time, and, together, alongside Austin Reaves, will create nightmares for defenses.
Finals MVP: Luka Doncic
Publicly humiliate a generational superstar by trading him from a franchise he wanted to play for his entire career, call him out of shape … and watch what happens.
Melissa Rohlin is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the league for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, the Bay Area News Group and the San Antonio Express-News. Follow her on Twitter @melissarohlin.
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