On Friday, September 12, Russia and Belarus commenced the “Zapad 2025” joint military exercise to flex their military muscles and give a significant display of force near NATO’s eastern flank, just days after 20 Russian drones violated Polish airspace.
The drills, involving hypersonic missiles and simulated nuclear strikes, are taking place in both countries and the Baltic and Barents seas, according to Russia’s defence ministry. This is the first such joint exercise since the lead-up to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and possibly the most heated moment between Russia and NATO since before the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Russian war games in Belarus shift military hardware closer to NATO borders
The exercises, which involve approximately 13,000 troops, though Belarus suggests a smaller figure, focus on defending against a hypothetical NATO invasion, followed by a counteroffensive. Conducted near Poland’s border, the drills include the nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile, heightening concerns in Europe. General Carsten Breuer, head of the German military, said that NATO remains vigilant, though no immediate attack preparations are evident. However, Jacek Siewiera, a Polish security expert, warned that the exercise could be a prelude to larger Russian operations in spring, potentially leaving military equipment near NATO borders.
Tensions escalated after recent Russian drone incursion, with four drones shot down and others penetrating 275 kilometres into Poland. Polish investigators suggest five drones targeted a military base critical for Ukraine’s arms shipments. Prime Minister Donald Tusk dismissed claims of a mistake, stating on X, “We know it wasn’t.” Poland has triggered NATO’s Article 4 consultations, pushing allies like Spain, Latvia, and the Netherlands to summon Russian diplomats. The Czech Republic is deploying special forces, and Germany is doubling its Eurofighter Typhoon squadron on alert for Poland.
Heightened NATO defences on borders as Belarus plays down Russian build up
NATO’s frontline states, particularly Poland and Latvia, have heightened defences, with Poland closing its Belarus border and Latvia closing airspace along its frontier. The Suwalki gap, a vulnerable corridor between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, is a focal point of concern. Past Zapad exercises preceded Russia’s invasions of Georgia (2008) and Crimea (2014), which caused fears about this year’s drills, despite Belarus’s assurances of transparency and a smaller scale.
Belarus wants to rid itself of Western sanctions and has invited NATO observers and released 52 prisoners, including an opposition journalist. Meanwhile, NATO is conducting its own Quadriga 2025 exercises, including Lithuania’s “Thunder Strike” with 17,000 troops and Germany’s supply route tests through the Suwalki gap. As tensions mount, the region braces for potential escalation.
