Record highs: Europe continues to set records for high temperatures at this time of year. Credit: Vereschchagin Dmitry / Shutterstock
Southern Europe continues to swelter under the current heat wave, while northern Europe has unusually cool weather and record high rainfall, what factors are in play?
Spain, like much of southern Europe, is sweating amid smothering heat waves, while northern Europe is seeing uncharacteristically high rainfall and below-average temperatures. In the south, this is causing an increase in wildfires and deaths from heat stroke, and in the north, record rainfall is causing flooding and mudslides.
These issues, while manifesting in radically different forms, and are not the only factors that drive global and regional climate patterns, are rooted in the same primary causes.
The warm and cold fronts that are currently taking place in Europe´s north and south, respectively, are products of the intersection between the El Niño phenomenon and climate change.
El Niño
El Niño and La Niña work on a complex cycle that can range from several years to less than a year. Currently, the earth is in an El Niño phase, which the World Meteorological Organisation observed to have begun last July. Also known as a ´warm event´, El Niño has far-reaching effects on the planet´s weather that are still the subject of vigorous study by scientists to try to understand.
El Niño is characterised by warmer temperatures globally, caused by warm water in the Pacific staying near the surface, radiating more heat into the atmosphere. This hot air spreads, and affects the trajectory of the Pacific Jet Stream, an air current that wraps around the earth kilometres up in the atmosphere, contributing to this heat affecting the entire world.
The changes in the atmospheric temperature caused by El Niño and La Niña have knock-on effects that affect weather worldwide, and one such result is that some areas near the equator, such as the Sahara Desert, tend to see high pressure and temperature masses of air push north, causing Spain’s Calima dust storms and Terral hot winds.
Record Rainfall
Northern Europe´s cooler temperatures and high precipitation are products of El Niño as well, as higher temperatures in the world´s oceans lead to more evaporation and, thus, more rainfall in low-lying regions, as has been seen in Europe so far this summer.
El Niño´s cycles have caused these cyclical weather patterns since the phenomenon was first observed and documented in the 1600s, however, climate change is making these oscillations more severe, and extreme weather events more frequent.
What further complicates this summer´s weather in Europe is the fact that El Niño is coming to an end, yet this transitionary phase´s cooling effects have not yet hit Europe. This sustained ´hangover´ of heat. Has caused droughts around Europe, and even begun to affect tourism to hotspots around the Mediterranean.
Effect on tourism
The European Travel Commission has reported that since 2022, tourism to Southern Europe has decreased by 10 per cent. In a survey among Europeans considering where to vacation conducted by the ETC, 76 per cent of respondents reported to have adjusted their travel plans based on climate change. and 17 per cent of respondents said they would avoid places with extreme temperatures, with that figure rising to 32 per cent among people 55 years of age or older.
Europe continues to be the continent most affected by climate change, and as ocean surface temperatures continue to rise, the peninsular continent has seen temperature increases at a rate twice the global average since 1991, per the WMO.
Extreme weather events like floods, heat waves, and mudslides are on the rise; from 2021 to 2023, the yearly number of extreme weather events in Europe increased from 11,442 to 16,956 recorded events.
