Uruguay exit polls show leftist Orsi ahead in presidential runoff

By Lucinda Elliott

MONTEVIDEO (Reuters) -Exit polls in Uruguay suggested that center-left candidate Yamandu Orsi was leading the second runoff of the presidential vote in the laid-back South American nation on Sunday night, after pollsters predicted a razor-thin race.

Orsi, who led the first round in October, secured 49.5% of the vote, according to an exit poll from Cifra, followed by 45.9% for Delgado for the ruling coalition. Equipos Consultores also predicted an Orsi win with 49%, and 46.6% for Delgado.

Pollsters cautioned that given the likely narrow margin, exit polls indicating results were only a guide.

Ballot stations in Uruguay, known for its beaches, legalized marijuana and stability, shut at 7:30 p.m., marking the end of a second-round race between two moderates at the close of a bumper year for global elections.

As early polls came in on Sunday, hundreds of Broad Front supporters in Montevideo, the capital, where residents have historically supported the center-left, gathered by a stage overlooking the city’s waterfront to await the results. Many people were flying party flags and setting off fireworks, bolstered by the party’s possible return to the presidency.

Pollsters had predicted a razor tight race in the small nation of 3.4 million people, with the opposition’s center-left Orsi taking on Delgado, the ruling conservative coalition’s candidate, who is backed by a third-place ally. Pre-election polls suggested a gap of less than 25,000 votes.

The potentially narrow margin could delay the results, politicians said.

Unlike sharp right-left divides in recent elections in Argentina, Brazil or Mexico, Uruguay’s political arena is relatively tension-free, with significant overlap between the conservative and liberal coalitions vying for office.

High living costs, inequality and violent crime are among Uruguayans’ biggest worries, but inflation had been easing in the run-up to the election, and both employment and real salaries are on the rise.

President Luis Lacalle Pou, who belongs to Delgado’s National Party, is popular, but he could not run for immediate reelection due to constitutional rules.

Orsi, who has pledged a “modern left” policy approach, won 43.9% of the first-round October vote for the Broad Front, while Delgado secured 26.8%. Delgado also has the backing of the conservative Colorado Party that together with his National Party made up almost 42% of votes. The two parties did the same in 2019, winning the election.

“The energy of the people and the enthusiasm leaves you satisfied,” Orsi said as ballot stations opened on Sunday. “But there’s always the feeling that you could have done more.”

He admitted he had not prepared a victory speech, but said he had peace of mind and felt “accompanied” by his supporters.

Orsi has sought to reassure Uruguayans that he does not plan a sharp policy shift in the traditionally moderate and relatively wealthy nation.

Construction worker Ruben Parada, 44, a resident of Montevideo, said he was voting for Orsi because the Broad Front party “thought less about the rich” and would do more to help working people.

Conservative Delgado asked voters to “re-elect a good government,” seeking to capitalize on the popularity of Lacalle Pou.

“If I win, I’ll invite Orsi to have mate (tea) with me,” Delgado said after voting. “My idea is a government of national unity.”

ECONOMIC SUCCESSES

While the ruling coalition is struggling to defend its record on fighting crime and over several corruption scandals, it hopes economic successes may be enough to convince voters to choose continuity over change.

“They did more in five years than the Broad Front did in 15 years,” said 38-year-old Jaqueline Fleitas, who cast her second-round ballot for Delgado, mentioning the construction of a hospital near her home in Montevideo.

Neither coalition has an absolute majority in the lower house following October’s elections. But Orsi’s Broad Front won 16 of 30 Senate seats. He says his Senate majority puts him in a better position to lead the next government.

Both contenders had been hoping to attract the roughly 8% of first-round voters who went for smaller, unaligned parties, as well as those who failed to turn out in October.

Neither made new pledges in the final weeks of campaigning, and pollsters say a televised debate on Nov. 17 appeared to have had little effect.

The exit polls suggest that Uruguay could follow a global trend of incumbent parties losing vote share compared with the previous election, as the biggest year for elections in history comes to an end. Voters hurt by inflation have punished parties in power, including in Britain, Japan and the United States.

Uruguayan voters, however, have benefited from a robust economy.

“There are few indications that voters are clamoring for significant political change,” said Uruguayan analyst Nicolas Saldias of the Economist Intelligence Unit.