Prime Minister Albin Kurti has said Kosovo’s Security Force (KSF) should develop into an army by 2028, but there is strong opposition from Serbia.
While political observers worldwide keep a watchful eye on Kosovo in the wake of an election that could lead to a period of parliamentary deadlock, there are also concerns and controversy around the future of the security apparatus in Europe’s newest country.
In light of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and a military build-up across the Balkans, Kosovo’s defence capacities have come to the fore. The young multi-ethnic nation of some 1.6 million still relies on the international community for its protection.
Since the conflict in the nineties and the NATO bombing campaign against Serbian forces in 1999, the international peacekeeping force (KFOR) and the EU Rule of Law Office Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) have served as the country’s military protection forces and back-up to the its police and judiciary — as part of a UN mandate.
Kosovo gained its independence from Serbia in 2008 — with US backing — although this has not been recognised by Belgrade and five EU countries (Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, and Spain). In 2022, Kosovo submitted its candidacy to become an EU member.
Given the region’s ever-more precarious security situation, one particularly controversial issue is the construction of the Kosovo armed forces, which Belgrade strongly opposes. Serbian politicians arguethat it could be used to expel the remaining Serbs from Kosovo.
The lightly armed Kosovo Security Force (KSF) was set up in 2009, predominantly tasked with civil defence, crisis response and ordinance disposal. In 2018, Kosovo’s parliament passed a law to transform the security forces into a 5,000-strong army, up from 2,500.
Prime Minister Albin Kurti — whose ruling Vetevendosje party won the most in seats in Sunday’s parliamentary election but fell short of a majority — said in December that the KSF would transition into an army by 2028.
The development of the KSF has also been been divisive within the EU and NATO.
Among some Western nations, there are concerns that it could exacerbate inter-ethnic tensions, while others have backed the idea of a “light” army as an institutional component of Kosovo’s state — and a key to the balance of power in southeast Europe.
“One of the pillars of the state, besides the territory, the population and the government, is also a military force,” Mimoza Ahmetaj, the country’s former Minister of EU Integration, told Euronews in an interview. She ran in this month’s elections as an MP candidate for the conservative Democratic Party of Kosovo, and is still awaiting the results.
“And we’re not doing anything else other countries aren’t doing. In fact, we’re living the reality of our times where countries are competing in militarisation,” said Ahmetaj, who also served as Kosovo’s Ambassador in Brussels among other diplomatic postings.
While Ahmetaj believes an army would benefit Kosovo’s citizens, she said it must have the backing of the West.
“It’s something that has to be done in accordance with what was decided in Brussels with NATO back in 2015,” she said.
For both the EU and NATO, the KSF can only evolve into a formal army in the framework of dialogue with Serbia, according to the Brussels Agreement of 2013 — a 15-point plan to normalise relations between the neighbours and former wartime foes.
Eyes on Washington
However, the security situation has deeply changed in Europe and in the Balkans over the last 12 years or so. Dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade collapsed in 2023, and the idea of a stable geopolitical environment is long gone.
“We have this build-up of armies all across the Balkans. It’s not just in Kosovo. Serbia is also buying a lot of weapons and a lot of equipment,” Aleksandar Rapajić, a Kosovo Serb political analyst with the Advocacy Center for Democratic think-tank, told Euronews.
“So we have this negative trend where instead of having more peaceful countries, we have more armed countries,” said Rapajić, whose thinktank is based in the ethnically divided city of Mitrovica in northern Kosovo.
The six Western Balkans nations are trying to portray themselves as responsible and autonomous actors able to provide for their own security and eliminate 19th century stereotypes of the region as the powder-keg of Europe, the analysts said.
“In fact, we don’t want to continue to be consumers of the security provided by NATO, but we would like to offer security for our citizens within the borders of Kosovo,” said Ahmetaj. “It is a process in accordance with NATO.”
Along with Germany, Turkey and the UK, the US has been one of the main backers of the KSF. Yet Serbia now hopes that Washington will reconsider its support for Kosovo.
“The Serb community in Kosovo has great expectations from new administration in Washington. We are stuck in these negotiations (in Brussels) without much result,” said Rapajić, emphasising that creating an army is something all of the country’s communities must agree on and approve.
“The constitution (of Kosovo) says that these kinds of decisions must be approved by the parliament majority as well as the majority of the ethnic communities. It is a safeguard mechanism that confirms that Kosovo is not an Albanian state, it’s a multi-ethnic state,” he explained.
Kosovo’s parliament has 120 seats, of which 20 are reserved for its minorities, including ethnic Serbs.
Is a ‘light’ defence force a viable option?
According to defence and security advisor Kadri Kastrati, a former KSF lieutenant-general, high-ranking member of the Kosovo Liberation Army, and former officer of the dissolved Yugoslav People’s Army (JNA), a potential Kosovo army would need at least 5,000 active troops and 3,000 reserves with efficient defensive weaponry by 2029.
The KSF is not set to have a fully-fledged air force or tanks, but is likely to be equipped with combat helicopters, anti-aircraft rocket systems and anti-tank systems, among others.
Kurti’s government has been acquiring Turkish Bayraktar drones and has ordered the purchase of US-made anti-tank Javelin missiles as well as Black Hawk helicopters.
The country also plans to build its first state-owned ammunition factory and drone design lab, in order to boost its defence industry, Kurti said last November.
But his government has failed to cooperate constructively with the KFOR and EULEX during crucial moments in the Serb-majority area of north Kosovo in the last two years, Kastrati said.
“Kosovo police are authorised to do everything in the north in line with the law. Yet, they have to inform the KFOR,” Kastrati explained. “But the government took populist actions to get more votes [and] to get more popularity with actions in the north.”
“We have to maintain lines of communication with the EU and the US for everything here in Kosovo,” Kastrati concluded.
