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The start of the top? The hypothetical way forward for Palestinian politics | Israel-Palestine battle

The masked Qassam Brigades fighter adjusts his AK-47 assault rifle earlier than he slides right into a chair within the Gaza workplace of Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas.

“Howdy, Condoleezza Rice. You need to cope with me now. There isn’t a Abu Mazen [Abbas] any extra,” the fighter jokes in an imaginary cellphone name to the then-United States secretary of state. Round him, fighters with the armed wing of Hamas snap photographs of themselves.

The 12 months is 2007, and Hamas has simply fought and overwhelmed a faction of Abbas’s Fatah get together for management of Gaza.

Fatah misplaced the 2006 Palestinian legislative elections and was sad with the end result, attacking the winners, Hamas.

This spelled not solely a political fracturing but additionally a geographical one. The Palestinians cut up into the occupied West Financial institution, partially ruled by the PA, and Gaza beneath Hamas.

Palestinians wave Hamas flags during a celebration rally in Gaza June 15, 2007
Palestinians wave Hamas flags at a rally in Gaza on June 15, 2007, celebrating the takeover of all Fatah headquarters, together with President Abbas’s workplace [Suhaib Salem/Reuters]

The scenario had remained frozen since then – till now when Palestinians’ political future appears extra unsure than ever.

Israel’s acknowledged goal for its present bombardment and floor offensive within the Gaza Strip in retaliation for Hamas’s shock assaults on October 7 in southern Israel has been to take out the armed group.

If Israel is profitable, the return of the PA to the beleaguered enclave is being touted as a risk. However will it return? And may it?

Gaza beneath Hamas

Underneath Hamas, the Gaza Strip has been besieged, impoverished by Israel and assaulted on 5 events previously 17 years.

On this newest assault, the Palestinian political future seems very precarious.

Israel mentioned it goals to destroy Hamas completely and that’s the reason it launched an all-out assault on the Gaza Strip on October 7.

Israeli raids, settler violence and settlement expansions within the occupied West Financial institution are among the many causes Hamas launched its assaults on October 7, Izzat al-Rasheq, a member of Hamas’s Political Bureau, mentioned.

“We warned the Israelis and the worldwide group that this relentless strain will lead to an explosion, however they didn’t pay attention,” al-Rasheq instructed Al Jazeera, including that incursions on Al-Aqsa Mosque, hundreds of unjustly detained Palestinians, and the blockade on Gaza all performed a task as properly.

In a state of affairs wherein Israel succeeds in eliminating Hamas by some means, it has been urged by the US that the PA take over the beleaguered enclave.

To this point, Israel doesn’t agree, however what do the Palestinians consider the PA? Can it return to Gaza? And may Hamas be destroyed?

Collusion vs confrontation

The crux of the divide between the 2 most dominant gamers in Palestinian politics is their differing approaches to the Palestinian trigger.

Whereas Fatah and the PA, whose present management is one and the identical, concentrate on cooperation with Israel, Hamas’s technique is to confront Israel militarily, mentioned Aboud Hamayel, a lecturer at Birzeit College within the West Financial institution.

“There’s nothing we are able to do,” Hamayel mentioned, mimicking what he mentioned is the PA’s defeatist tone.

The PA’s help base within the West Financial institution relies on a transactional relationship with Israel, the analyst mentioned. Nonetheless, some Fatah factions do participate within the armed battle within the West Financial institution, the place the motion is extra vocal and numerous than the PA, he added.

Fatah nonetheless exists in Gaza, the place it’s now within the opposition. Its supporters there are cut up between loyalty to Abbas and former Fatah chief Mohammed Dahlan, who has been in exile within the United Arab Emirates for 10 years, Hamayel mentioned.

The PA has worldwide recognition and receives funding and tax revenues. In flip, it manages safety in its territory, theoretically liberating Israel from coping with day-to-day Palestinian life, Hamayel mentioned, besides when Israel conducts raids and arrests resisting Palestinians.

Police officers stand guard as Palestinian lawyers protest against Palestinian Authority's rule by decree and demand a return to normal parliamentary lawmaking, in Ramallah
Law enforcement officials stand guard as Palestinian legal professionals protest towards the PA’s rule by decree and demand a return to regular parliamentary lawmaking in Ramallah within the occupied West Financial institution [File: Mohamad Torokman/Reuters]

The post-war query

Fatah does wish to obtain unity with Hamas, in keeping with the group’s spokesperson, despite the fact that a number of makes an attempt over time to try this have failed.

“Via nationwide dialogue, we’ll attain a consensus on learn how to govern ourselves, learn how to lead our trigger and current it to the world,” Jamal Nazzal, a Fatah spokesperson and a member of its parliamentary physique, the Revolutionary Council, instructed Al Jazeera.

A unified Palestinian entity is the acknowledged US purpose, particularly as discussions come up on the destiny of Gaza after the struggle, in keeping with Kenneth Katzman, a senior fellow on the New York-based Soufan Heart.

This entity would management each Gaza and the West Financial institution, settle for Israel’s existence and resume Oslo negotiations with Israel, he mentioned, referring to agreements between Israel and the umbrella Palestine Liberation Group (PLO) within the Nineties.

“I feel the intent is to get again to the place the talks left off,” Katzman instructed Al Jazeera, including that they’d be the precursor to Washington mediating a two-state answer.

Rafe Jabari, a French-Palestinian political science analyst, agreed {that a} two-state answer must be pursued after the struggle’s finish however mentioned a brand new settlement must be drawn as much as change the Oslo Accords as a result of Palestinians had been coerced to make too many concessions in that course of.

Israel shall be unwilling to relinquish management of the lands it occupies, he added, and it won’t be able to take out Hamas because it says it desires to. “Hamas is part of Palestinian society. They will’t remove Hamas,” he instructed Al Jazeera, including that they’re not only a political wing.

Hamas agrees. “They can not rearrange the Palestinian home to swimsuit themselves. Hamas will stay, and what comes after Hamas can even be Hamas,” mentioned al-Rasheq, including that Palestinians wouldn’t settle for “the US or Israel or anybody else” telling them who ought to govern them.

“The Palestinian folks won’t ever settle for an entity that enters Gaza on an Israeli tank,” he mentioned.

As a result of it’s unimaginable to eradicate Hamas, Jabari mentioned, the group must be concerned in any post-war negotiations.

“All actors must be concerned within the decision of the battle,” he mentioned, citing previous negotiations wherein that occurred even when one get together was considered as a “terrorist group”, similar to in the course of the French-Algeria peace settlement in 1962 or, extra just lately, in talks between the US and the Taliban.

A transition interval involving a global peacekeeping power in Gaza was talked about by each Katzman and Jabari as a attainable first step earlier than negotiations.

However, Jabari added, these forces have been abject failures in current conflicts.

The PA’s waning recognition

The PA’s authorities within the West Financial institution is seen by many Palestinians as collusion with Israel.

A lot of the frustration is with Abbas, who’s seen as weak for not managing to advance any peace processes in his practically 20 years in energy, Jabari mentioned. He’s additionally seen as not having advocated sufficient towards Israel’s practices from settlement expansions to harassment of Palestinians, he added.

PA safety practices within the occupied West Financial institution have additionally been criticised as heavy-handed however, Nazzal mentioned, the PA must “restore order and defend the regulation”.

“Actions of the Palestinian safety forces or officers or regular people typically require safety coordination with the occupying energy,” he mentioned, including that the whole lot the PA administers within the occupied West Financial institution “needs to be coordinated with Israel”.

Nazzal distanced Fatah from the PA, nonetheless, saying it’s “a liberation motion that doesn’t have any form of contact with Israel”.

Regardless of frustration with the PA, Katzman mentioned Palestinians who’re bearing the brunt of the Israeli aggression could also be extra disgruntled with Hamas’s actions.

“A lot of the Gaza inhabitants now realises that Hamas goes to maintain dragging them right into a struggle with Israel, and so they don’t need that,” he mentioned. “So I feel they’re keen to miss the Palestinian Authority’s faults. I feel that’s true for Palestinians within the West Financial institution as properly. They don’t need … without end struggle with Israel.”

Nonetheless, al-Reshaq mentioned: “Palestinians in all places help Hamas extra. They see Hamas is working to withstand the occupation,” he mentioned, including that international help for Palestinians has surged previously few weeks.

‘The start of the top’?

With blended help for the PA amongst Palestinians, what’s the chance of it returning to manipulate Gaza?

Nazzal identified that, regardless of Hamas rule, the PA already runs sure parts of life in Gaza, such because the well being and training ministries and the banking system.

In the meantime, the Fatah motion, he added, is against a future wherein Hamas is taken out.“We don’t agree on the Israeli army targets in Gaza, nor can we predict what would be the final result of this horrible assault that Israel has launched towards our folks,” Nazzal mentioned.

What Fatah is aware of, nonetheless, is that Palestinians ought to determine who governs them by legislative elections that safe a path for the two-state answer, he added.

“The one factor that no person has tried is for the Palestinians to dwell freely in an impartial state of their very own,” Nazzal mentioned. “Till that occurs, we’ll maintain going from one cycle of violence to the subsequent.”

The US continues to be ramping up its push for the return of the PA in Gaza, although, and the explanations President Joe Biden’s administration has for this technique is multifold, Hamayel mentioned.

First is to purchase time for Israel to complete its army operations by distracting the worldwide group, he mentioned.

It desires to permit its ally to retaliate for Hamas’s October 7 assaults whereas coaxing it to consider what’s subsequent, the analyst mentioned.

The White Home additionally desires to maintain its regional allies on aspect, particularly as Arab states battle with their residents not feeling that they’re doing sufficient to finish the Israeli assault, in keeping with Hamayel.

Nonetheless, he concluded, the PA takeover would occur provided that Hamas loses, an final result nonetheless too early to foretell.

Fatah and Hamas officials wait for a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and representatives of Palestinian groups and movements as a part of an intra-Palestinian talks
Fatah and Hamas officers in talks in Moscow, Russia, on February 12, 2019 [File: Pavel Golovkin/Pool via Reuters]

Hamas, in the meantime, sees weak spot in Israel’s seemingly directionless assault on civilians.

“The dimensions of the defeat [on October 7] made [Israel] lose its thoughts and strike out in any path with no thought,” al-Reshaq mentioned. “It has failed. It failed on the battlefield on October 7 when confronted with the Qassam Brigades, and it’s failing now as a result of it’s unable to realize any actual objectives in Gaza.”

Within the occasion that Israel can’t take Hamas out, the fissure between the 2 Palestinian political teams will deepen, Hamayel predicted.

Hamas would stay standing, a valiant hero for Palestinians for preventing Israel, and the PA would seem weak, shamed for cooperating with Israel over time, he mentioned.

That might kick off a vicious cycle of a seemingly weak PA inspiring extra settler exercise within the West Financial institution, which might erode the group’s management of the territory an increasing number of, he mentioned.

“This might be the start of the top of the PA,” Hamayel mentioned.

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