An aerial view of the 2021 eruption of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma island. Cumbre Vieja could, in theory, trigger a ‘Megatsunami’ with waves that could reach the US. However, this scenario is not currently considered likely.
Credit: Shutterstock, Stanislav Simonyan
It might sound like the plot of a blockbuster disaster film – but scientists have long warned that a volcano on a Spanish island could in theory unleash a massive wave that travels all the way across the Atlantic.
We’re talking about La Palma, part of the Canary Islands, where experts have studied what might happen if part of the island’s volcano, Cumbre Vieja, were to collapse into the sea. Could it happen? Technically, yes. Likely to happen anytime soon? Let’s look at the facts.
The volcano with a wobbly flank
The fear centres on the western slope of Cumbre Vieja, the same volcano that erupted in 2021, displacing thousands of residents and covering vast swathes of land in lava.
But the bigger threat – according to some earlier studies – is what would happen if a massive chunk of the volcano’s western flank slid into the ocean in one go. That collapse could displace a huge volume of water, potentially sending huge tsunami waves racing across the Atlantic.
This idea was made famous by a 2001 study led by Dr. Simon Day and Dr. Steven Ward, who warned of a “potential catastrophic collapse” generating a so-called megatsunami. They predicted waves of up to 25 metres hitting parts of the eastern US coast, with more extreme heights near the source.
“Our model predicted waves travelling as far as the Americas,” said Dr. Day in his original paper (University College London, 2001). “But this is a worst-case scenario, not a forecast.”
Will it happen? Scientists burst Netflix’s big wave bubble
A Spanish wave so big it washes out New York? It’s the stuff of disaster flicks – and now, Netflix dramas. In one recent series, a family holidaying in the Canary Islands gets caught in a volcanic chain of chaos as La Palma’s Cumbre Vieja collapses, triggering a “megatsunami” that surges across the Atlantic and swallows entire coastlines. Gripping telly. Total nonsense.
Top volcanologists have weighed in to set the record straight – and they’re not buying the big wave hype. “The eruption and subsequent rapid collapse of the island depicted in the series isn’t a plausible scenario that scientists are concerned about,” wrote researchers from the University of Liverpool and University of Waikato in The Conversation in January.
The science has moved on since the headline-grabbing 2001 “megatsunami” paper by Simon Day and Steven Ward. Updated simulations, including a 2008 study by tsunami expert Dr Stephan Grilli, show that if the volcano did collapse into the ocean (which, by the way, is possible but not likely anytime soon), the waves would reach the US East Coast at just 1–2 metres high. That’s no biblical wipeout – that’s a rough day at the beach.
As for those closer to the action, like the Canary Islands or West Africa, waves could hit heights of 10 to 30 metres – no small splash, but nothing like the cinematic tidal monster smashing through Times Square.
Scientists now believe any collapse would probably happen in slow-motion, in stages, not as one giant plunge. So, the chances of a sudden doomsday wave? Slim.
Experts warn that while the Netflix drama might make for edge-of-your-seat entertainment, it also spreads misinformation. And when communities are still rebuilding from the real-life 2021 eruption, scaremongering doesn’t help.
New 2025 research sheds light on magma movement
Just when we thought Cumbre Vieja had been filed under ‘debunked’, science delivered a twist. A new 2025 study revealed its magma started stirring up to 15 years before the 2021 eruption – much earlier than expected – and worse still, it can move silently, without triggering quakes.
Scientists have warned that while a Megatsunami event is unlikely, today’s detection systems might miss the signs of an eruption unless upgraded. It pays not to get cocky.
So yes, Cumbre Vieja’s a volcano worth watching – but don’t go grabbing a surfboard in New York just yet.
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