Global Trend
The commissioning of large polymer production facilities reflects a global trend. According to Argus, the global polymer market could reach 284 million tonnes by 2033, up from 200 million tonnes last year. New project launches are expected to surge over the next few years. By the end of 2028, global polymer production capacity is projected to increase by 105 million tonnes annually, pushing the industry capacity utilization rate below 80%.
This is indicative not of overproduction but rather market evolution. Larger, more efficient plants are coming online, driving down production costs, while smaller, outdated plants with capacities of around 0.5 million tonnes per year may close. Argus predicts that Western Europe and North-East Asia (Japan, South Korea) will be the most affected.
The Russian Energy Ministry’s analytical centre notes that new players from post-Soviet countries could enter the international polymer market. For instance, Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas is building a plant with a capacity of 1.25 million tonnes of polyethylene per year in partnership with China’s Sinopec and Russia’s SIBUR, while Uzbekistan’s Saneg is constructing a polymer plant in collaboration with Sinopec.
Market Redistribution
According to the industry association Plastics Europe, Europe’s share of global polymer production decreased from 22% to 14% between 2006 and 2022, while North America’s share dropped from 24% to 17%. Meanwhile, the Middle East is diversifying away from crude oil and increasing polymer exports. China’s share of global polymer production grew from 21% to 32% between 2006 and 2022, a trend that is expected to continue. As the world’s largest consumer of polymers, China has already achieved self-sufficiency in polypropylene production and is advancing towards self-sufficiency in terms of polyethyleneproduction.
India is also progressing towards polymer self-sufficiency. Nayara Energy, India’s leading private oil refinery, beganpolypropylene production in the western part of the country this year, aided by Russian investment. Meanwhile, the state-owned Hindustan Petroleum Corporation plans to launch a large polymer production complex in Rajasthan and is preparing several other projects. Adani Group is building a $4 billion PVC plant, with the first phase expected to launch by the end of 2026.Despite these developments, India plans to remain active in the global polymer market, exporting certain types of polymers while continuing to import others.
Russian Experience
For Russian producers, like their Indian counterparts, the priority is the domestic market. Polymers are the most reliable, cost-efficient, and durable materials for numerous applications, including automotive manufacturing, construction, medical devices, and packaging materials.
Until recently, Russia relied heavily on imported polymers from Europe. After European producers ceased working with Russian companies, however, SIBUR began producing new types of polymers to replace those imports. Domestic sales now constitute the core of SIBUR’s revenue, although some production is still being exported.
As economies develop, per capita polymer consumption tends to increase. In the coming years, developing countries are expected to drive growth in polymer consumption. However, a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) emphasized the need to ensure that this increase in polymer production and consumption does not exacerbate the global problem of plastic pollution. The report also highlighted the importance of collecting and recycling plastic waste.
Like India, SIBUR has significant experience when it comes to tackling plastic pollution. The company finances initiatives aimed at collecting and recycling of plastic waste and then produces polymers, including PET and polypropylene, with up to 70% post-consumer recycled plastic content. A study by the Russian Union of Chemists has shown that basic polymers can be recycled up to 10 times without compromising their consumer properties.
