- Lawyer Fred Rispoli sees a 90% chance of a settlement or withdrawal.
- Speculation grows over political timing linked to SEC leadership changes.
- Broader crypto market lost $11.5 trillion as XRP faces technical headwinds.
The nearly four-year-long courtroom standoff between Ripple Labs and the Securities and Exchange Commission is rapidly approaching a turning point.
A key deadline on 16 April could determine whether Ripple’s appeal continues, settles, or is abandoned—marking a potentially defining moment for the XRP token and broader US crypto regulation.
While the SEC’s partial win in 2023 established that Ripple violated securities laws in some transactions, the remaining disputes centre around the classification of XRP and the legal precedent such a ruling could set.
With XRP’s price down nearly 50% from its 2024 peak, markets are bracing for impact.
April 16 is Ripple’s appeal deadline
Ripple is due to file its appellate brief by 16 April as part of its ongoing opposition to the SEC’s challenge of Judge Analisa Torres’ ruling in 2023.
That ruling determined XRP was not a security when sold on public exchanges but was in institutional sales.
According to lawyer Fred Rispoli, who has closely followed the litigation, there is only a 10% chance Ripple will proceed with filing the brief.
Instead, Rispoli estimates a 90% probability that Ripple may settle or drop the appeal entirely—possibly based on a private understanding between the parties.
He notes that Ripple is not allowed to request an extension, meaning a concrete development is expected on or before the Tuesday deadline.
Rispoli’s theory is that a withdrawal or settlement could prevent a prolonged legal process while preserving the favourable retail sales ruling.
Ongoing speculation of a private agreement
The idea that Ripple and the SEC might be working toward a confidential resolution is not new.
On social media platform X, community members pointed to past statements by Ripple executives, suggesting the firm had some agreement in place with the SEC to de-escalate the case.
However, no public filing has been made to confirm this. Rispoli clarified that while such an agreement may exist, it could involve “non-public, written assurances” from the regulator—effectively removing the need for a public statement unless a formal settlement is filed with the court.
At this stage, the docket remains unchanged.
A court withdrawal or a settlement announcement would be the first official sign that the case is winding down.
Political timing could influence strategy
Some observers believe the delay might not be entirely legal in nature.
A few have speculated that Ripple and the SEC could be waiting for the confirmation of a new SEC commissioner—possibly Paul Atkins, who has previously advocated for more lenient crypto regulation.
A settlement timed around his appointment could serve both sides, particularly in terms of public perception, without altering existing legal frameworks.
While Rispoli has not confirmed or denied this theory, the suggestion adds a political dimension to the case.
If true, it may indicate that the agency and Ripple are coordinating a strategic pause rather than simply preparing legal filings.
XRP price under pressure amid uncertainty
As the community watches the legal timeline, XRP has struggled to maintain momentum.
The token is down nearly 50% from its peak in 2024, weighed by market-wide weakness and the legal ambiguity surrounding its status.
The broader crypto market has also shed $11.5 trillion in value recently, and XRP remains one of the most exposed major coins when it comes to regulatory risk.
From a technical standpoint, XRP shows signs of a bearish pattern, with price levels hovering near support zones and volume thinning out ahead of the court deadline.
The outcome on 16 April could either spark renewed investor confidence or further damage sentiment if the appeal continues without clarity.
