Recent electoral history in Missouri shows whoever wins the Aug. 6 Republican primary will head into November with a good chance of winning the governorship.
The next governor of Missouri will likely be chosen among three Republican contenders.
One candidate, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, is the state GOP’s choice to succeed Gov. Mike Parson, a Republican who has led the state since 2018.
Another, Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, is the son of John Ashcroft, a former senator from Missouri and its governor from 1985 to 1993.
The final leading candidate, Missouri state Sen. Bill Eigel, casts himself as a conservative outsider planning on shaking things up in Jefferson City.
On Aug. 6, Missouri voters will select one of these Republican front-runners to appear on the November ballot. If recent history is a guide, the GOP will have a massive advantage over the candidate the Democratic Party chooses in its gubernatorial primary.
In the most recent statewide elections, in 2022 and 2020, Republicans won every statewide office and sent Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) to Capitol Hill to join Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). The GOP controls both houses of the Missouri General Assembly, too.
The Leading Candidates
Mr. Kehoe was appointed to his current office by Mr. Parson in 2018. Mr. Parson, the lieutenant governor under former Gov. Eric Greitens, assumed the position after Mr. Greitens resigned in June 2018. Both Mr. Parson and Mr. Kehoe were elected to a full term in 2020.
Before his appointment, Mr. Kehoe served in the Missouri Senate for nearly seven years. He was the body’s majority leader when he was selected by Mr. Parson.
On July 18, Mr. Parson officially gave his endorsement to Mr. Kehoe. In a statement provided by the Kehoe campaign, Mr. Parson said the Show-Me State needs a “conservative leader who can get things done as our next governor.”
The lieutenant governor told The Epoch Times he is the only candidate in the race with experience in forming what he called “conservative, common sense solutions” in both the executive and legislative branches of state government. If elected, he said he will focus on growing the state’s economy and creating jobs.
“I’m ready to lead on day one,” Mr. Kehoe said in an interview.
Mr. Ashcroft is the son of former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft.
Mr. John Ashcroft held statewide office in Missouri from 1973 to 1993, first as auditor, then attorney general, and finally as governor. In 1994, the elder Ashcroft was elected to the U.S. Senate, where he served one term before being appointed U.S. attorney general under the Bush administration, an office he held from 2001 to 2005.
Mr. Jay Ashcroft’s political career began in 2014 when he ran unsuccessfully for the Missouri Senate. In 2016, he was elected to his current office. On the campaign trail, he said he’s telling voters about his record of defending election integrity, improving the state’s libraries, and blocking so-called environmental, social, and governance requirements in Missouri.
If elected, Mr. Ashcroft told The Epoch Times he would focus on social issues, public safety, and tax policy. He highlighted a pledge to put as many as 1,000 new police officers on the street within a year of taking office and to ensure that prosecutors uphold the law by limiting their ability to avoid bringing charges for certain crimes.
For the economy, he promised to lower the fuel tax and eventually eliminate the state’s income tax.
“The people want a leader. They want a vision,” Mr. Ashcroft said in an interview. “They want someone that will accomplish conservative policies.”
Mr. Eigel, a retired Air Force captain, was elected to the Missouri Senate in 2016 and reelected to represent the St. Charles County, Missouri, district in 2020. In an interview, he called himself the “anti-establishment candidate.”
Mr. Eigel’s campaign platform calls for ending state personal property taxes as well as personal and corporate income tax, detaining and deporting illegal immigrants, repossessing land owned by foreigners or foreign entities, and pushing back on what he called the “DEI, CRT, transgender nonsense” in the state’s schools.
“I’m the guy that’s going to unite the Republican Party by calling on Republicans to do Republican things,” Mr. Eigel said. “I’m going to be the guy willing to confront the status quo.”
Polling and Finance
Publicly available polls conducted in June indicate the largest portion of likely voters are still uncommitted. None of the leading candidates hold a commanding lead.
The poll of about 500 likely voters conducted between June 17 and June 19 found that 23 percent of respondents would vote for Mr. Ashcroft, 20 percent would elect Mr. Kehoe, and 6 percent would back Mr. Eigel. However, 46 percent said they were as-of-yet undecided on the issue.
As for fundraising, Mr. Kehoe is the far-and-away leader.
Both the other major candidates and their allied PACs retained far less cash at the end of June, according to the latest round of disclosure statements released on July 15.
Abortion and the Economy
As conservative Republicans, all three men share mostly similar views on problems such as crime and immigration and stand close to each other on social and cultural issues.
According to the Emerson poll, 34 percent of Missourians said the economy is their top political issue of 2024.
All of the candidates spoke about their plans to address economic concerns in their interview. Only Mr. Kehoe didn’t mention using additional tax cuts to stimulate the state economy.
Additionally, 12 percent of respondents said abortion was their most important issue. This ranked the topic second behind the economy and ahead of other concerns such as immigration, health care, crime, education, and housing affordability.
Abortion is illegal in Missouri. The ban was enacted in 2022 after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, giving states the authority to enact their own abortion laws.
As for abortion, all of the candidates believe in the current state statue, according to their interviews or their online campaign materials. Mr. Ashcroft and Mr. Kehoe spoke directly about their opposition to the ballot measure. Both said it would allow abortions take place up to the point of birth.
In his interview, Mr. Kehoe said if he’s elected and the measure passes in November, he will work with the General Assembly to “move back into a position … where we can still protect the innocent and the unborn.”
New Field, Old Rivalry
According to the Emerson poll, more Missourians agree about keeping professional sports teams in the state than they do about elections, but the next governor will have to address the issue of major sports teams and their economic impact on the state.
Of the Missouri residents surveyed in June, 63 percent said they find it important the Kansas City Chiefs NFL team stays, and 58 percent said it’s important that the Kansas City Royals MLB team stays.
The National Football League and Major League Baseball teams—which both play in Jackson County, Missouri—are facing questions about their future home. In April, voters in Jackson County declined to renew a sales tax that would have helped to fund new stadiums for the teams. New facilities for both teams will cost an estimated $3 billion.
In June, Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly signed a bill passed by the Kansas Legislature that would allow the state to issue special bonds covering 70 percent of the cost of new stadiums if they are built in Kansas instead.
The move appeared to violate the terms of a 2019 agreement signed by Mr. Parson and Ms. Kelly pledging that their respective states would no longer use competing economic development incentives to coax businesses from one state to the other.
Mark Donovan, team president for the Chiefs, said on July 19 that the team will make a decision on its future home within the next six months. Earlier in the year, Royals Chairman and CEO John Sherman said the team will not play at their current venue after 2030.
Both Mr. Eigel and Mr. Ashcroft said if they are elected, they will not deploy economic incentive packages in the so-called border war with the Sunflower State.
“I view it as terrible policy,” Mr. Eigel said. “We should be treating all of our citizens equally, not just giving special tax privileges to the very wealthy and the very powerful.”
“We have to create an economic environment where teams, businesses, and people want to be,” Mr. Ashcroft said. “You do that with … education reform, public safety, and economic reform.”
Mr. Kehoe, following the precedent set by Mr. Parson, said he views the Kansas City teams as large employers with ripple effects on the entire economy of the state’s second-largest city. If elected, with an eye toward ensuring a “good return on investment for taxpayers,” Mr. Kehoe said the state would “do what we can to keep those teams here in Missouri.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
