“No, we are not buying right now. The war seems to have intensified. Sixteen ships have been downed in the Strait of Hormuz, and the attack on Tehran was very intense. Oil hit $122 a barrel and is now down to about $88. But we haven’t seen the end of this war yet, and President Trump’s statement that it will end soon may be premature,” Trivedi told ET Now.
The crisis, now entering its second week, is raising concerns about global energy supplies. Brent crude has surged 46% since the start of the year, impacting oil-importing economies like India.
“Brent is at $88, up from $60 on Jan 1. This is negative for countries like India, South Korea, and Japan. Gas is an even bigger problem due to dependence on Qatar. The impact is being felt across OMCs, autos, tyres, paints, plastics, fertilizers, aviation, chemicals, and even hospitality. Some restaurants are even changing their menus to avoid using gas,” he said.
Despite market losses, Trivedi avoided predicting specific levels for benchmark indices, pointing to shifting global investor sentiment.
“We had a great February with trade deals and FPIs returning. But the war has changed things. Year-to-date, we are down 8%, the worst among EMs. This doesn’t mean it’s time to buy, but FPIs are favoring other EMs over India,” he noted.
On policy developments like opening FDI with China, Trivedi said it is positive but cautioned that the details matter.“It’s a step in the right direction, but it could create intense competition for local power companies. Chinese products are cheaper, which may help reduce costs but not all companies will benefit,” he explained.
Amid uncertainty, Trivedi remains focused on long-term structural demand sectors rather than global commodities.
“We are positive on data centres and AI, but mainly the power sector, which is the second-highest allocation in our fund after banking and finance.”
Trivedi also stressed that his strategy focuses on structural changes within companies rather than thematic trends.
“We look for incremental changes—CEO changes, ownership shifts, M&A, or subsidiary IPOs. We’ve sold some stocks that reached their potential, and that strategy has worked well,” he said.
He added that portfolio trimming has been gradual over the past year, not a reaction to the latest crisis.
“This war is right in our neighborhood and impacting the economy. In such times, you can’t react quickly unless you’re a hedge fund. We’re weathering the storm like much of the financial industry, and hopefully, the situation resolves soon,” Trivedi said.
