By Tina Teng
Published on
Crude oil prices fell for a third consecutive trading day on Thursday ahead of the US-Iran nuclear talks. Traders are growing concerned about the possible return of oil supply from Iran, which holds around one-third of the world’s oil reserves.
Adding to the pressure, a Bloomberg report stated that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is considering a third consecutive production hike in July, compounding fears of an oversupplied market.
Oil prices continued to decline during Friday’s Asian session. As of 4:40 am CEST, Brent futures were down 0.59% to $64.06 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 0.6% to $60.83 per barrel—both touching their lowest levels in over a week.
Potential oversupply overshadows geopolitical tensions
Crude prices have experienced notable volatility in recent weeks as market participants weigh rising geopolitical tensions against mounting supply from major oil-producing nations. Broader macroeconomic factors—such as easing US-China trade tensions and renewed selling in US Treasuries—have also been influencing oil market movements.
Earlier in the week, prices briefly spiked following a CNN report that Israel was preparing to launch strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, citing intelligence from US sources. However, the rally proved short-lived, with analysts suggesting the warning may have been a strategic move by the US to exert pressure on Iran ahead of the nuclear negotiations.
The geopolitical boost was quickly overshadowed on Wednesday by data showing a surge in US crude inventories. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil stockpiles rose to 443.2 million barrels in the week ending 16 May—the highest level since July 2024. The report also indicated that net US crude imports had increased for a third consecutive week, while domestic demand remained weaker than expected.
OPEC+ may accelerate production hike
News about OPEC+’s potential acceleration in production hike sent the oil price down further on Thursday. The oil production cartel is reportedly considering hiking crude output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July. The decision is yet to be finalised on 1 June when the group holds the next meeting.
The group, which accounts for around 40% of global oil supply, has jointly reduced production by approximately 2.2 million bpd in 2023. The quicker-than-expected phased rollback began with a 135,000 bpd increase in April, tripling to 411,000 bpd in May and June. The acceleration is seen as a punitive measure against members which failed to comply with agreed production quotas, with Kazakhstan and Iraq identified as recent overproducers.
Crude prices have consistently fallen following OPEC+ announcements of larger-than-expected production increases in both April and May. However, the potential July decision may already be priced in by markets—unless the group surprises traders with an even more aggressive supply boost.
Demand outlook remains weak
The demand outlook remains fragile amid ongoing concerns over slowing global growth, particularly driven by the US tariffs. Crude prices had previously dropped to a four-year low on 9 April and again on 5 May. The oil market rebounded following the US and China’s trade talks earlier this month, when the world’s two largest economies reached an agreement to pause high tariffs on each other for 90 days.
While near-term pressure remains supply-driven, there is cautious optimism that a sustained recovery in market sentiment, driven by further progress in US tariff negotiations, could support a rebound in oil demand.
“While the immediate pressure comes from the supply side, I believe that in the longer term, further progress on US tariff negotiations with key partners could revive demand and offer more meaningful support for oil,” Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Australia, said.
